The Pac-12 women’s basketball regular season came to a close last weekend. Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State and UCLA clinched first round byes for the Pac-12 women’s basketball conference tournament, which begins Thursday in Las Vegas.
Among the big questions heading into the conference tournament: Will anybody knock off the Ducks? Oregon State could set the stage for a rubber match; Stanford could get a second crack at one of the top teams in the country as one last NCAA Tournament primer.
Keep an eye out for my daily Pac-12 conference tournament notebook series, which will feature notes and analysis from Vegas on each day of Pac-12 tournament action. Before previewing Thursday’s slate of four games, let’s run through my awards picks.
Closest call: Coach of the Year
This season calls for serious consideration for each coach of the top four programs. Start at the top with Kelly Graves at Oregon. They were the hunted and only lost twice (at OSU, vs. UCLA) without the services of Ruthy Hebard (knee).
The Ducks lost likely freshman of the year frontrunner Nyara Sabally to injury before the season even started. The depth concerns would have been real regardless had Taylor Chavez not been ready. Hebard and Satou Sabally became much better players within the framework of how they play.
Tara VanDerveer hasn’t had returning starter Marta Sniezek for the entire season. Lexie Hull missed a big chunk of time. Most impressively, the Cardinal still finished seventh nationally in the Her Hoop Stats defensive rating (77.4) without versatile starting big Nadia Fingall for most of conference play.
There’s no way anyone could have penciled Alanna Smith in for the breakout season we’ve seen. (I don’t know how to fairly dish out credit for player growth and development, but it’s clearly a nonzero number.) When teams take away their basket cuts and Smith’s catch and shoot looks, they’ve been liable to get stuck in the mud offensively.
A fair Stanford critique: They were big enough favorites to say they should have pulled out wins at Cal and at Utah. An unreasonable Stanford critique: Saying the Oregon loss is in any way indicative of how good this team has been all season. The latter camp also seems to have completely glossed over the fact that they absolutely waxed Oregon State two days prior.
Scott Rueck’s offense took a gigantic hit in losing Kat Tudor to a season-ending knee injury. Like Stanford, they only lost two games that they should have won. Rueck deserves to take some heat for how he managed the second ASU game, fouling his own best player out for most of the first half.
But the Sun Devils also hung around in both games for a reason that has nothing to do with a Rueck flaw or shortcoming. ASU is a tough matchup for OSU. The Sun Devils are disciplined enough on defense to take away your best stuff and thrive against more methodical opponents because they never turn the ball over.
Rueck did experiment with more of Mikayla Pivec and Katie McWilliams at the 4 and even Taya Corosdale at the 5 without losing patience with his centers. That trust in the bigs paid off big time. Joanna Grymek is playing the best basketball of her career.
Rueck has also been willing to stomach awkward moments that can come from sitting Aleah Goodman and Destiny Slocum, both when one wasn’t playing well or simply to keep enough size on the floor. Pivec and Katie McWilliams both need to play a lot. Goodman and Slocum were bound to find themselves in a bit of a minutes share. Their best five, sans-Tudor (Slocum, Goodman, McWilliams, Pivec, Corosdale) is probably too small. (Stanford faces a similar dilemma against elite competition.)
Cori Close shaped the team that ended up emerging above the rest of the middle of the pack. I don’t think there was any real objection to Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford being seen as the clear-cut top three. The Bruins did enough to separate themselves from some very capable competition and will be rewarded accordingly with a better seed in the NCAAs barring a monumental upset in Vegas.
UCLA didn’t endure as big an injury hit as the top three. But Close essentially had to ask Michaela Onyenwere to scale up to become a No. 1 scoring option after being the seventh player in their rotation last season.
This UCLA group simply has a pretty low offensive ceiling. Their best players have no margin for error. Japreece Dean had to take command of the offense and did after turning in five rough performances in their first six Pac-12 games.
All that said, UCLA still got swept by OSU and Stanford. They ran into Oregon at the right time and took care of business against the middle and bottom of the league. The Bruins still have one of the Pac-12’s best trios in Onyenwere, Dean and Kennedy Burke. In a two-team playground draft with each of ASU, Utah, Cal, Arizona and USC, the Bruins still have two of the best three (if not three of four) players.
I keep circling back to this: Am I really going to count the two losses without Hebard as a significant knock against Graves’ case? Maybe I’m underrating or missing something else from this Oregon season. But the evidence I’ve seen points to Graves as the best pick.
Freshman of the Year: Dre’Una Edwards, Utah
It’s tough to find a competitor. Cate Reese had a relatively productive season for Arizona, but Edwards put more consistent pressure on opponents. You felt Edwards’ ability to face up and drive or grab and go at all times. She’s a perfect fit for Utah’s up-tempo style with ample shooting around her.
Sixth player of the year: Aleah Goodman, Oregon State
This was an easy call. Goodman would start for at least six Pac-12 programs if dropped onto their roster tomorrow. She shot north of 42 percent from deep in the regular season on 5.4 attempts per game. Teams must game plan for her not just as a catch and shoot threat, but as a player that can hit tough triples on the move and off the bounce.
Defensive Player of the Year: Alanna Smith, Stanford
I give the nod to Smith over Kristine Anigwe in part for being part of a better defense—a difference of more than 14 additional points allowed per 100 possessions. That isn’t Anigwe’s fault, but Stanford’s defensive success on a national scale has to play a part.
Smith is a better switch defender—something Stanford has tapped into to make them so tough to score on—and is more consistent defending away from the paint. Smith averaged more stocks (steals plus blocks, 3.5 to 2.7) and had higher steal (2.1 to 1.7) and block (8.8 to 4.7) rates.
Anigwe posted the highest defensive rebounding rate (35.0) in the country to Smith’s 21.7. But Cal played more zone than the Cardinal—20.6 percent of their defensive halfcourt possessions to Stanford’s 7.6 per Synergy Sports. Anigwe was going to get more opportunities to gobble up boards around the basket.
This was one of the tougher calls. I think both are clear difference makers sure to also contribute at the next level as above average defenders. Smith proved to be more versatile and has been the most important defensive piece on the chess board for a top flight defense.
Player of the Year: Sabrina Ionescu, Oregon
The short version: Echo many of the same sentiments issued in the case for Graves as Coach of the Year.
Every possible defensive strategy you could reasonably throw at Oregon has to do with Ionescu above all else. Hedge at your own peril. She’s going to get the ball out in time to the open player. Drop back all the way to the front of the rim and your only hope is that she misses open pull up jump shots and runners. Switch and watch her ensure the ball finds Hebard to bulldoze the poor guard stuck on her back.
I think it’d be a mistake to assume that the unbelievable fit, shooting and potency of Oregon’s starting lineup has made Ionescu the player that she is today. Oregon’s personnel simply dumps gasoline on the fire that was already there. She was already the main attraction, the one thing a defense has to pay attention to so much more than anything else to even have a chance of hanging with the Ducks.
Would other top guards thrive in Ionescu’s place? Of course. But again, that can’t be a reason to knock her case. You still have to go out there, win enough games to establish a national power in just two years like she did then follow it up by continuing to perform with a target taller than Bill Laimbeer on your back every night.
Anigwe has a case if Cal had done more to rack up a few more wins against the middling programs. Smith’s case is complicated by only having one meeting with each of the other top two teams in the conference. Ionescu has essentially repeated last season’s level of production as teams have had a full year to lock in even more on her game. No reason to overthink this one.
All-Freshman Team
Dru Gylten, G, Utah
Lindsey Corsaro, G, UCLA
Lacie Hull, G/F, Stanford
Dre’Una Edwards, F, Utah
Cate Reese, F, Arizona
Call it an excuse of convenience if you want, but I felt a drop off after these five names. Taylor Chavez has been really good—as in good, period, not good for a freshman—on defense for the Ducks but the three guards here have been reliable two-way starters.
This season won’t feel full without getting even a glimpses of Nyara Sabally on the floor for the Ducks. I’ve been all-in on Iris Mbulito from day one, but she just hasn’t played enough to be stacked up against these players. UCLA’s Kiara Jefferson is another guard to keep an eye on defensively. She’s got great feet and lateral quickness, and the Bruins are about to graduate two starters on the perimeter.
All-Defense Team
Aliyah Mazyck, G, USC
Lacie Hull, G/F, Stanford
Kennedy Burke, G/F, UCLA
Alanna Smith, F, Stanford
Kristine Anigwe, F, Cal
Toughest omissions: DiJonai Carrington, Stanford; Lajahna Drummer, UCLA; Charnea Johnson-Chapman, ASU; Minyon Moore, USC
Hull should be the only surprise, if any, on this list. I went with Hull over Moore for her switching and sheer knack to be a pest with her long arms, staying in plays and contesting shots even when she gets stuck behind her player.
All-Pac-12 Teams
1st Team
Sabrina Ionescu, G, Oregon
Aari McDonald, G, Arizona
Alanna Smith, F, Stanford
Kristine Anigwe, F, Cal
Ruthy Hebard, F, Oregon
2nd Team
Destiny Slocum, Oregon State
DiJonai Carrington, Stanford
Satou Sabally, Oregon
Megan Huff, Utah
Michaela Onyenwere, UCLA
3rd Team
Kiana Williams, Stanford
Mikayla Pivec, Oregon State
Kennedy Burke, UCLA
Kianna Ibis, Arizona State
Borislava Hristova, Washington State
Toughest omissions: Chanelle Molina, Washington State; Aliyah Mazyck, USC
I went about this trying to form three semi-realistic lineups featuring two guards, two forwards and one guard/forward slot. Hebard has been so dominant thanks to her improvements as a back to basket scorer that I had to slide her into that third frontcourt spot with Smith and Anigwe.
This came down to a list of six (Molina, Pivec, Burke, Hristova, Mazyck, Williams) for the final four spots. Mazyck just hasn’t been as efficient as the other guards. She’s the best defender of the bunch by far, but shot creation still matters for the teams outside the top half.
Molina and Williams are eerily similar statistically. I don’t think Williams has met the level of consistency her team has needed from her, but she’s a better defender on a much better team.
Leaving Molina off hurt the most, especially because her teammate Hristova is prone to being quite a liability on defense. (There’s no sense in dancing around it.) But I penciled her into one of the two ‘big’ slots. Burke was the final name I slotted in over Mazyck and Molina.
What to watch for: (12) Colorado vs. (5) Arizona State, 2:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Networks
I think this matchup is Thursday’s most fertile ground for an upset. Alexis Robinson is still one of the more explosive 3-point threats despite a sub-30 percent mark from deep in the regular season.
Per usual, Arizona State probably isn’t running away from anybody unless their opponent hurts themselves with a ton of turnovers. ASU’s starting lineup is still too predictable, though they run some fun actions to free up Ibis and send Courtney Ekmark flying around screens.
Colorado’s bigs need to play with physicality. Johnson-Chapman is an ultimate litmus test. If you don’t bring it, she’s gonna bury you under the rim and burn you repeatedly on the offensive glass.
The winner will advance to play No. 4 seed UCLA at 2:30 PM ET in the quarterfinals on Friday (TV: Pac-12 Networks).
What to watch for: (9) USC vs. (8) Arizona, 5:00 PM ET, Pac-12 Networks
If this game goes to overtime by chance, can we just watch Aliyah Mazyck and Aari McDonald play 1-on-1 for five minutes? Watch Mazyck and Minyon Moore closely as they take on the challenge of slowing McDonald down. They have wonderful chemistry to even exchange assignments on the fly on the rare occasion that they do get beat off the dribble.
The big picture question in this game: What will USC do to force Arizona’s supporting cast to make outside shots? Going to zone would probably hurt the watchability of this game, robbing us of the aforementioned guard matchup, but could also lead to more stops that will ignite their running game.
The winner will advance to play No. 1 seed Oregon at 5:00 PM ET in the quarterfinals on Friday (TV: Pac-12 Networks).
What to watch for: (10) Washington State vs. (7) Cal, 9:00 PM ET, Pac-12 Networks
We still don’t ever know what we’re going to see from Cal offensively around Anigwe on a night-to-night basis. If the Cougars get a ‘Cal is missing and turning down open looks’ game, Molina and Hristova are more than capable of shouldering the load…if they manage to maybe keep Anigwe from another 30 and 30 line.
The winner will advance to play No. 2 seed Stanford at 9:00 PM ET in the quarterfinals on Friday (TV: Pac-12 Networks).
What to watch for: (11) Washington vs. (6) Utah, 11:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Networks
You have to feel for Utah. They’re out of the at large picture in Charlie Creme’s latest Bracketology after losing six of eight, but are in as a 12 seed in Russ Steinberg’s latest round of Bracketology.
An ideal recipe for a Washington upset likely involves teams that struggle when an opponent speeds them up. The Utes have Erika Bean and Gylten, who will look to attack and push the pace at every opportunity. Utah has been decimated by injuries, but still have plenty of shooters to set up for open 3-pointers early in the clock.
The winner will advance to play No. 3 seed Oregon State at 11:30 PM ET in the quarterfinals on Friday (TV: Pac-12 Networks).
Previous editions of the column: Week 16 | Week 15 | Week 14 | Week 13 | Week 12 | Week 11 | Week 10 | Week 9 | Week 8 | Week 7 | Week 6 | Week 5 | Week 4 | Week 3 | Week 2 | Week 1
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