Why Aces recent surge won't equal three-peat

Two things the past few weeks of WNBA action have shown us about the Las Vegas Aces are that it is extremely likely that A'ja Wilson is en route to her third league MVP and that her team most likely won't be three-peating as champions. Las Vegas is 7-5 since the Olympic break. Wednesday's win over the Fever was only the second victory over a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Yes, the Aces have clinched a playoff berth so technically they will have the opportunity to defend their two-year run as WNBA Champion, but technicalities don't win titles, nor is it likely the Aces will in October. Let's take a look why Wilson's MVP hardware will be the only thing to celebrate on the Strip this fall.

A'ja A'jA A'ja and....?

Unless you've been living under a rock (no offense to those organisms that do) you are most likely well aware of the amazingly dominant season Aces power forward A'ja Wilson has had thus far. In Wednesday's game, Wilson, who leads the league with 27.3 points per game, made WNBA history. In the first half, number 22 in white and silver broke Jewel Lloyd's single season scoring record of 939 points. Wilson's season total points now sits at 956 and she is just forty-four points away from being the first ever WNBA player to score one-thousand points in a single season. Yet, for the 2024 Aces, it could be said that A'ja's dominance is the only thing to rely on night in and night out.

Game to game for Las Vegas it seems that after Wilson there is a drop-off in consistent quality nightly contributions from the rest of the roster. Fellow All-Star Kelsey Plum's scoring average (17.8 per game) is her lowest since 2021 and her steals per game average (0.8) is its lowest since 2020, which speaks to Coach Becky Hammon's season-long frustration with her team's defense.

Plum has certainly been the season long number two to Wilson, a Batman & Robin-type situation if you will, and has picked up the slack when Wilson hasn't been dropping 30 & 40 burgers or when A'ja missed Sunday's game in New York against the Liberty when Plum scored twenty-five in a losing effort, but there have been disappointing outings when she's been needed in tough situations. When Wilson put up forty-two against Dallas in a tight game that resulted in a loss, Plum finished the night with just eight points. In the game against the Chicago Sky, a loss that many Aces say left a bad taste in their mouth heading into the break, Plum had another eight-point night while Wilson finished with twenty-eight.

Plum isn't having a bad season. In fact, she's having a good season and will be a key part of Las Vegas' possible success in the playoffs. The problem is that because of the lack of contributions offensively from the rest of the roster, the seven-year guard simply has to be better night in and night out. Yes, that's a lot of pressure but that's what being a pro is all about.

The popular thinking about this season's Aces was that once Chelsea Gray returned from missing the first few weeks of the season healing from a foot injury their ship would be righted and they'd be fully on course for a three-peat. Since her return in mid-June, Gray has logged nine games scoring less than five points as well as nine games with fewer than five assists, a part of her game the Aces were hungry for upon her return to action. The veteran leader point guard is still finding her footing which may prove costly come postseason.

Further down the roster

Forward Alysha Clark is averaging just 6.2 points a game, her lowest since 2014. Clark is not necessarily on the roster to score a lot of points. The thirty-seven-year-old eleven-year vet is in Vegas to rebound, defend and hit threes. The problem here is that the 5' 11" Clark is often outsized by bigger, stronger, younger players. Clark is shooting over her season average from three (41% to 38.6%) since the Olympic break, including going 4 of 6 in Wednesday's victory, numbers she'll have to build on down the stretch.

Jackie Young appears to be the one member of the Aces who's been impacted the most by the Olympics. Young, who carried a huge chunk of the offense early in the season before Gray's return, has clearly been hampered by her participation in Paris. Only twice since WNBA play resumed a few weeks ago has Young reached or surpassed her 15.9 points per game average and on four occasions, including Wednesday (six points) she's scored in single digits.

The grind of the Olympics and WNBA season are highlighted in Young's numbers. The six-year vet is logging her second highest minutes per game (32.8) in her career which has resulted in her lowest shooting percentage (42.5%) since her rookie year and almost ten points off her pace from last season. Pretty safe to say Jackie Young is one tired pup.

The fourth leading scorer on the Aces is TIffany Hayes, a player Las Vegas had to coax out of retirement to help bolster the bench. If that doesn't encapsulate the offensive depth issues facing the Aces heading into the postseason, I don't know what does. Most nights for Las Vegas it feels like after Wilson and Plum they're hoping maybe Young isn't feeling worn out, maybe Gray can recapture some of the magic she once held and maybe a Megan Gustafson or a Sydney Colson can put up a few buckets.

Flat out it seems like a lot of the roster is just worn out. Between back-to-back title runs, half the roster having played in the Olympics and an inconsistent bench it's no wonder the Aces have struggled mightily against the top teams in the league. Las Vegas has gone 1-6 against the Liberty and Lynx, that lone win was way back in May against Minnesota.

Last night's win in Indiana against a hot Fever team is certainly a good thing for the Aces and a sweep in Indianapolis would surely be a boost to their overall confidence to three-peat, yet the task ahead just seems too great for this Las Vegas roster. There's a reason no WNBA team has three-peated since the early days in the league and why it's an extremely rare occurrence in any sport...it's really hard to do.