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The crucial reason Mystics have edge in race for final playoff spot

Will the Mystics reach the playoffs?

By Chris Timoney

Washington Mystics center Stefanie Dolson (31) celebrates Wednesday, July 10, 2024, during the game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Mystics defeated the Fever, 89-84.
Washington Mystics center Stefanie Dolson (31) celebrates Wednesday, July 10, 2024, during the game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Mystics defeated the Fever, 89-84. / Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
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This is it. The final stretch. The WNBA regular season wraps up Thursday and all but one of the eight playoff spots are locked up. The playoffs of this historic season in the W will surely be star-studded with the likes of A'ja, Jewel, Sabrina & Stewie, Turasi, Napheesa and CC in the mix. With just a few games left, three teams will battle it out for that final postseason spot. The Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky each have three games left heading into today's action to decide who the eighth seed will be. With just a handful of days left in the regular season it's a classic "three women enter, only one comes out" scenario. Who will it be and why?

Since the post-Olympic return to WNBA play the Sky have struggled mightily. Chicago is 3-10 in the second half of the season with wins coming against the two teams at the bottom of the standings in Dallas and L.A. twice. The Sky had no players in Olympic play so one would think they'd be well rested and ready to roll out of the break. Wrong.

Chicago started the second half of the season by getting blown out by an inconsistent Phoenix Mercury team who had three starters on Team USA in Paris. After the loss to Phoenix, Chicago was able to beat the Sparks then went on a seven-game skid that began with a second blowout loss to the Mercury in three days. During the losing streak the Sky were able to hang tough and lose some close ones to the likes of Connecticut, Las Vegas (at the buzzer) and Minnesota but they just don't have the horses to get the job done.

Marina Mabrey, who was traded to the Sun just before the All-Star game, still has the second highest scoring average on the team after breakout star Chennedy Carter, per ESPN. Angel Reese's absence down the stretch will certainly loom large but that's not why Chicago will miss the postseason. The Sky have nice pieces in Carter, Reese and Kamilla Cardoso but they must be aggressive in free agency this winter if they want to make a playoff appearance in 2025.

If we're going to say the Sky have fallen out of the playoff picture, then that leaves Atlanta and Washington to battle it out for the final playoff spot, figuratively and literally. The Mystics beat the Dream Friday in the first of a back-to-back series that could very well determine who gets to play past September 19th. The Mystics are now tied with Chicago for that last playoff spot, yet they own that tiebreaker after going 3-1 against the Sky during the regular season. If the Mystics sweep this two-game set with Atlanta they'll punch their ticket to the postseason since they'll own the season series (3-1). If Atlanta can grab the W then things get a bit more interesting.

Follow the bouncing ball

After Sunday's game with the Mystics, the Dream play at home against the Sky before closing out the regular season at Barclays Center against the Liberty. New York hosts Minnesota Sunday afternoon. A win against the Lynx would give them a four-game lead over Minnesota and clinch the overall number one seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs. The reason the Liberty-Lynx game is so important for both Atlanta and Washington is that if the Liberty clinch the top seed, then there's a good chance coach Sandy Brondello gives stars like Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu some rest before the postseason.

This type of move would benefit both the Dream and Mystics and really take things down to the wire. Should Minnesota win today then Washington could be the first to suffer as they face the Liberty before the Dream do to close out the season Thursday. All this would make Washington's game at home against the Fever one for potentially all the marbles.

Indiana and Phoenix are two teams strictly playing for seeding to close out the season. Heading into Sunday's action the Fever sit in the number six seed spot, two games ahead of the Mercury and also own the tiebreaker against Phoenix having swept them 3-0 during the season. Should the Fever beat Dallas at home their sixth seed spot would be sealed and it's quite possible starters like Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchel would get some pre-playoff rest for the season finale against Washington.

All these scenarios of if this team wins this game, then it may make that game easier for the other team because players x, y and z might rest etcetera are fun and quite plausible, yet the deciding factor of who will grab that last playoff spot will likely come down to a much easier equation. An equation coaches have used in games for decades, who has the hotter hand?

Coming down the stretch the Mystics are 7-2 while the Dream is just 2-8. It's for this much simpler reason that WNBA fans will be watching Ariel Atkins, Stefanie Dolson and Brittney Sykes play the Liberty to open the playoffs instead of TIna Charles, Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard.

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