The Golden State Valkyries have spent a good part of the season chasing the Minnesota Lynx for the number-one seed going into the playoffs. With just three games left in the season, they are only one game behind the Lynx and have an easy schedule.
The Valkyries will face three lottery teams in their final games, giving them a chance to overtake the Lynx, who still have to play the Indiana Fever twice.
The Lynx need to win two games to hold on to first place
The Valkyries have three games against the Seattle Storm, Portland Fire, and Los Angeles Sparks left before the playoffs start. Minnesota cannot count on them to lose. The Valkyries have won five consecutive games and held all of their opponents below 70 points over that stretch, including the Lynx and New York Liberty.
If the Lynx take care of business against the Connecticut Sun, they still have to win at least one of the two games against the Fever—assuming the Valkyries win all three of their final games.
Two wins for the Lynx and three for the Valkyries would leave both with a 33-11 record, and Minnesota owns the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning the season series 3-1. If the Lynx win only one game, they will have a 32-11 record, and the Valkyries could overtake them with three wins and a 33-11 record.
Beating Indiana will be easier said than done. Kelsey Mitchell’s scoring tear seems impossible to stop at this point, and the Fever are desperate to secure home-court advantage in a likely four-five matchup with the Atlanta Dream.
How much does having the number-one seed really matter?
Finishing the season with the number-one seed is a great look, but doesn’t necessarily guarantee playoff success. If the Lynx dropped to second place in the standings, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.
They will have home-court advantage either way, and there’s no guarantee that their preferred first-round matchup will even finish eighth. For the Lynx, the injury-plagued Dallas Wings would definitely be the best first-round matchup. Paige Bueckers could easily light it up in the playoffs, but the Wings are also without Azzi Fudd and have struggled to defend the paint, which will be amplified if Alanna Smith misses any time in the playoffs.
The Mystics, on the other hand, may be inexperienced and young, but they’re also big and physical. Minnesota should definitely beat Washington in a series, but it could be an uncomfortable matchup. The New York Liberty just beat the Lynx, so that’s definitely a first-round matchup they want to stay away from.
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