Mystics will be a tougher first-round opponent than their youth makes them out to be

Finishing the playoff race with a top-four seed comes with two perks: home-court advantage and a first-round opponent from the bottom half of the playoff picture. After Tuesday’s slate of games, the four lower-seeded playoff teams are the Atlanta Dream, New York Liberty, Washington Mystics, and Dallas Wings.

At first glance, the Mystics may seem like the easiest target out of that group because of their youth, inexperience, and offensive struggles. However, they could be a much tougher first-round opponent than it seems.

The Mystics’ size and defense could cause problems

The Mystics may not actually win a first-round series against a top-three seed, but that doesn’t mean they will be an easy out. Washington has the second-worst offensive rating in the league, and their point guard play isn’t great. It’s difficult to win a playoff series against an experienced veteran opponent that put together a strong regular season if you can’t score and knock down 3-pointers.

But the Mystics excel on defense. They have the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA behind the Golden State Valkyries. They are big, physical, and fearless with Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen, and Lauren Betts in the paint, and Sonia Citron, Cotie McMahon, Michaela Onyenwere, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton on the perimeter.

Yes, the Mystics lack experience and offensive firepower, but they can make the game difficult and ugly. Finishing with a top seed comes with pressure to go on a deep, tiring playoff run. If that’s the goal, you don’t want to face a big, physical team that will try to wear you out with their defense in the first round.

Take the Minnesota Lynx, for example. They have a three-game lead over the second-placed Valkyries and will very likely finish the season in first place. That means, they will get to match up with the eighth-placed team, which will most likely be Dallas or Washington. Minnesota should beat both. But if the Lynx had the choice between facing the Mystics’ size and physicality or a Wings team that allows over 40 points in the paint per game and struggles to defend, they’d choose the latter—no matter how great Paige Bueckers has been this season.

Washington is the one team that faces absolutely no pressure in the playoffs

The Mystics have the privilege of entering the playoffs with absolutely no pressure. Sure, they are competitors and want to win, but if they don’t, it’s totally fine.

This season is about proving that they can be competitive with the youngest roster in the W and learning which of their young players should be a part of their long-term plans around Citron, Iriafen, and Austin.

Making the playoffs is all about getting those three players postseason experience and seeing how they respond when they are locked into a series with the Lynx, Valkyries, Aces, or Fever.

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