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Women’s Basketball Top 16 Reveal: Mississippi State is a 1 seed in first committee reveal

By Russell Steinberg

COLUMBUS, OH - APRIL 1: Jackie Young #5 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish reaches as Teaira McCowan #15 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs attempts a pass to teammate Jazzmun Holmes #10 during the championship game of the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Final Four at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH - APRIL 1: Jackie Young #5 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish reaches as Teaira McCowan #15 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs attempts a pass to teammate Jazzmun Holmes #10 during the championship game of the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Final Four at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) /
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The top of the tournament snapshot offered surprises.

The NCAA women’s basketball committee has spoken, and Mississippi State would be a 1 seed if the field was chosen today. Baylor, Oregon, and Louisville are the other projected 1 seeds, according to the committee, which revealed its top 16 teams during halftime of the South Carolina vs. Connecticut game on Monday.

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The top 16 was broken down into the four projected regions, showing where each team would be placed in a hypothetical bracket. The full list can be found below:

And here it is broken into regions:

The most striking takeaway, when looking at the true seeds and comparing them to the regions, is that competitive balance has taken a backseat to geography and conference bracket guidelines. This summer when I was at the NCAA mock selection, the committee stressed balance, trying to make the sum of the true seeds in each region close to equal. The committee was unable to do so here.

Greensboro is the toughest region, featuring Baylor (1), Notre Dame (6), Maryland (11), and South Carolina (13). Those seeds add up to 31. Albany is the easiest region, where Mississippi State (4) is paired with UConn (5), Oregon State (12), and Miami (16). Those add up to 37. For reference, the committee would like each region’s true seed total to be within about five of each other. On the top four seed lines, that should narrow even a little more.

There are two reasons why this happened: The first is that geography seems to trump balance. That’s why Iowa State, for instance, is sent to Chicago rather than Portland, which would have balanced the regions a little more. The second is that the committee has to walk a tightrope with four ACC teams and three Pac-12 teams in the top 16. Unless absolutely necessary, teams from the same conference cannot be placed in the same region if they are in the top four seed lines. That limited their options. It meant Notre Dame was sent to Greensboro to accommodate Louisville going to Chicago. Louisville was sent to Chicago because Baylor got first pick at a region, and Greensboro is closer to Waco. (EDIT: I’M NOT OWNED)

This was the first top 16 reveal of the season. The next, and final one before the release of the actual bracket, will be on Monday, March 4 during halftime of UConn’s game against South Florida.

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