Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Central Michigan
By Ben Dull
The Ohio State Buckeyes, the No. 3 seed in the Spokane Region, took care of business in round one against George Washington. Stephanie Mavunga scored a game-high 22 points to go with 13 rebounds and four blocks. The Central Michigan Chippewas now stand in their way after upsetting No. 6 seed LSU by a score of 78-69.
Senior forward Tinara Moore had 25 points and seven rebounds in round one. Three of Central Michigan’s starters played 39+ minutes on Saturday. Only three bench players have appeared in more than 16 games for the Chippewas this season, each averaging fewer than 12 minutes per game.
Presley Hudson is a very dangerous three-point shooter (44.4% on 8+ attempts per game). Moore is their leading scorer at 18.9 points per game; Hudson averages 18.1 along with 5+ assists per game.
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Reyna Frost has averaged a double-double this season for Central Michigan. She had 12 points and 12 rebounds in round one in 33 minutes, but fouled out with 2:16 to play. Frost, Moore and reserve forward Kyra Bussell will have their hands full inside with the 6’3 Mavunga.
With the help of HerHoopStats, here’s a look at the Four Factors (defined in their glossary) for each team:
There’s little margin for error against Kelsey Mitchell. The 40.3% three-point shooter isn’t just special because she’s shooting that well on 10 attempts per game. She can hit them off the bounce, and sending extra help that way risks opening up additional cracks in your defense.
Small cracks in a rotating defense are all Stephanie Mavunga needs to wedge herself under the basket or roll right into prime real estate to dominate games on the offensive glass. Ohio State’s team offensive rebound rate may not have caught your eye, but Mavunga averages over four and a half offensive rebounds per game by herself.
Mavunga’s 16.6% offensive rebounding rate ranks 21st in the country. Last season as a freshman, she was even better (20.4%, the fifth best mark nationally). She grabbed 23.8% of all available rebounds last season (third best nationally) while on the floor. That number stands at 19.9% for her this season, still placing her in the 99th percentile.
Central Michigan has been one of the most efficient offenses in the country each of the last two seasons. Their 54.5 eFG% and 58.2 True Shooting% rank seventh and fourth, respectively. The Chippewas are 11th in 3PT% at 38.4.
Four double-digit seeds will be in action today. The Chippewas will absolutely have earned their place in the Sweet 16 if they manage to contain a Buckeyes’ team with its sights set on earning a one-way ticket home — that is, by punching their ticket to the Final Four in Columbus.