Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 11 Buffalo
By Ben Dull
The Florida State Seminoles, the No. 3 seed in the Albany region, made quick work of Little Rock in round one. FSU got 26 points from Shakayla Thomas and 13 points and 10 rebounds from Chatrice White in the 91-49 victory.
They’ll face the Buffalo Bulls on Monday, who beat South Florida by 23 after trailing by nine at the end of the first quarter. These teams do have one common opponent from nonconference play that is also in the NCAA field in Arizona State. FSU knocked off ASU 77-66 on December 10. Eight days prior, the Sun Devils topped Buffalo by a score of 76-57.
Florida State has no bad losses on its resume. They’ve beaten NCAA Tournament teams in shootouts (defeated Iowa 94-93 on November 29) and grind-it-out type games — most notably January 21 at Louisville. Trailing 22-9 after the first, the Seminoles held Louisville to 27 points the rest of the way. FSU shot just 27% in that game but pulled down 20 offensive rebounds (Chatrice White accounted for nine of those in just 21 minutes).
Will these two teams light up the scoreboard in this round of 32 matchup? Buffalo hung 102 on No. 6 seed South Florida on Saturday, led by 5’9 junior Cierra Dillard’s 36 point performance (11-18 FG, 7-13 3PT, 7-8 FT). Junior forward Courtney Wilkins knocked down five threes off the bench. As a team, the Bulls shot 14-27 from deep and 22-24 at the line in round one.
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Shakayla Thomas and Imani Wright are FSU’s leading scorers at 17.5 and 16.7 points per game, respectively. Wright is shooting 39.8% from deep on 8+ attempts per game. AJ Alix is a threat from beyond the arc as well (37.9% on 5+ 3PTA per game) and has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.26. White is the team’s leading rebounder, though Ama Degbeon isn’t far behind (6.5 per game).
With the help of HerHoopStats, here’s a look at the Four Factors (defined in their glossary) for each team:
Offensive rebounding will be a leading factor in this one. FSU’s 41.1% offensive rebounding rate is the 10th best in the country (they finished eighth, first and second in the three seasons prior in that category). Four different FSU players average more than two offensive boards per game.
As you can see above, Buffalo is capable of getting after it on the offensive glass as well. Their defensive rebounding rate, however, does not stack up quite as favorably. They’re near the middle of the pack, ranking in the 58th percentile nationally.
In Buffalo’s five losses this season, opponents averaged 16.2 offensive rebounds per game. Given that many extra chances, FSU may be able to build up a lead as this game wears on. With their ability to knock down the three and get on the offensive glass themselves, the Bulls should be a tough out in this one.
Both teams have done a good job of taking care of the ball this season, but Buffalo’s steal rate of 15.5% is the ninth best in the country. FSU’s turnover rate of 15% is the 27th best in the country. The Seminoles may pull down enough rebounds to give themselves a lot of extra chances on offense, but they’ll need to take care of the ball first to secure a spot in the Sweet 16.
Stats obtained via HerHoopStats.