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Why Oregon-UCLA has been the perfect March Madness primer

By Ben Dull

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Three matchups between the Oregon Ducks and UCLA Bruins have delivered the high-level basketball fans expect to see this time of year in the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks swept the series, but the Bruins gave them all they could handle each time. UCLA, ranked ninth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, has been one of the few teams to challenge No. 6 Oregon this season for a full 40 minutes.

January 7 at Pauley Pavillion, the Ducks managed to pull ahead by four on a Lexi Bando three-pointer with one minute to play. The Ducks got a stop on the next possession and iced the game with free throws.

February 19 in Eugene on ESPN2, the Ducks prevailed 101-94 in overtime. The second meeting was played at a much quicker pace as the teams combined to shoot 62% from deep.

Then on Saturday, the two teams met for the third time in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. The Bruins led by as many as 13, but the Ducks rallied to close the game on a 10-0 run. The Bruins held possession with 30 seconds to play after an Oti Gildon layup put the Ducks up by three. Japreece Dean’s three-pointer from the left wing missed off the back of the rim as time expired.

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The Ducks advanced and defeated Stanford 77-57 on Sunday, clinching the first Pac-12 Tournament title in program history.

Though they didn’t meet in a tournament final, Oregon-UCLA III was one of the best games of championship weekend from across the country. This matchup features at least three surefire future pros in Sabrina Ionescu, Jordin Canada, and Monique Billings.

UConn will sit atop the NCAA Tournament field once again as the clear-cut best team in the country, though Oregon, UCLA, Mississippi State, Baylor, Notre Dame, South Carolina and others (watch out for Jeff Walz in those handshake lines!) are looming.

Because Oregon and UCLA have met three times this season, let’s dive deeper into those matchups to consider what we’ve learned about two of the country’s 10 best teams that may have implications well beyond Pac-12 play. Unless otherwise noted, all stats provided via HerHoopStats.

Kennedy Burke and UCLA’s switchy defense

Kennedy Burke, 2017-2018 All-Pac-12 honorable mention and member of my Pac-12 All-Defense team, started Saturday’s game on Oregon starting point guard Maite Cazorla.

Burke’s been a defensive stopper all season long for the Bruins, so this matchup in isolation shouldn’t come as a surprise. Roll the ball out there, and you’ll see why UCLA is able to make life so difficult for the high octane Oregon offense.

Maite Cazorla and Ruthy Hebard ran two pick and rolls in the opening minutes of Saturday’s semifinal — Burke and Monique Billings switched seamlessly both times. Oregon gains no significant advantage in those new matchups. The Ducks tried to force it to Hebard inside against Burke, which is exactly what the Bruins were hoping for:

UCLA’s switch-heavy approach successfully took away the drive and kick sequences resulting in catch and shoot three-pointers that haunted them in the second matchup in Eugene. The hole in this strategy can only be exploited if the Bruins get burned repeatedly off the dribble:

That’s just one example. Sabally did something there known as ‘driving the front’. Burke was aggressive in getting on top of Hebard to prevent an easy entry pass. Because Burke was stuck on the top side, Sabally drove the opposite way, where the Bruins would be hard-pressed to send any help.

You saw Burke get two steals by muscling up against Hebard, who’s got about four inches on her. Burke has been in the 90th percentile or better nationally in both blocks and steals per game in each of the last two seasons. A steal rate of 2.6% put her in the 94th percentile last season and the 93rd this season.

Best of all for the Bruins, Burke manages to do all this without fouling. She’s averaged fewer than two fouls per game and posted a foul rate of 2.7% or lower in each of her three seasons.

Maite Cazorla, still getting her own

Cazorla is not the type of player to call her own number and put people in the mix in isolation. Though she often brings the ball up, she’s the secondary creator behind Sabrina Ionescu. Cazorla assists 25.0% of Oregon’s baskets when she’s on the floor, placing her in the 92nd percentile nationally.

Beating Kennedy Burke off the dribble is no easy task. Getting a step on her toward the rim comes with no guarantees considering Burke’s length and the army of capable help defenders behind her.

With Burke resting partway through the first, Cazorla crossed up Japreece Dean to reject a screen and finish over the help at the basket:

Cazorla caught Burke with the same move in crunch time to put the Ducks ahead for good.

The Bruins had been switching that Cazorla/Hebard pick and roll, so credit Cazorla for managing to do the one thing the defense absolutely had to prevent: the ball handler rejecting the screen to drive the baseline where no help was going to be available.

Naturally, UCLA’s defense still made life tough on Cazorla:

Jordin Canada surprised Cazorla that time as she tried to initiate a pick and roll at the end of the first quarter. Monique Billings did an excellent job to anticipate Cazorla’s next move. UCLA tried trapping her again on the left wing to open the third quarter, though they failed to cover up Ruthy Hebard rolling to the basket:

More than half (52.5%) of Cazorla’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc, where she is a 39.2% shooter. Her skill set makes her a perfect backcourt partner for Ionescu. Cazorla can occasionally take the reigns to prevent them from becoming too predictable and commands the attention of her defender as a spot-up threat when Ionescu really takes over. Oregon ultimately got separation on the fringes Saturday, namely in moments with the ball in Ionescu’s hands against a scrambled defense:

UCLA didn’t get all the way matched up. Canada stepped in to cover up Hebard, leaving UCLA’s three guards on one side of the floor with Cazorla alone on the weak side.

Sabrina Ionescu, picking you apart

I’ve written previously about Oregon State’s relative success in guarding Ionescu-Hebard pick and rolls two on two. When executed properly, Ionescu will be forced to take a contested midrange pull up or floater. That’s easier said than done.

UCLA switched most pick and rolls on Saturday against Oregon. The one exception came with Jordin Canada drawing the primary assignment on Ionescu. The screener’s defender showed to take away straight line drives to the rim. Canda made the read as to whether she would go over or under that screen to get back to Ionescu as soon as possible.

Early on, Ionescu took advantage of that, canning a triple and getting all the way to the rim:

When Canada wasn’t on Ionescu, the Bruins switched. UCLA’s signals got crossed a few times, and Ionescu made them pay:

I mentioned Ionescu’s ability to made plays on the fringes as a separator in this matchup. Take this drive as another example:

Oregon set this up several different times on Saturday. Cazorla ran a dummy pick and roll, took a step toward the middle of the floor, then fired it to Ionescu at the left wing. This time, Ionescu drove all the way across the baseline and pitched it to Lexi Bando.

Ionescu popped to the right wing and drilled a deep three-pointer. Kennedy Burke appeared to have called for a switch, but it was too late. Canada was committed to Bando, who wasted little time rewarding Ionescu for immediately popping out to the wing.

Then twice in the fourth quarter without creating a major advantage, Ionescu did a wonderful job setting up her teammates to score. First, she drove the middle on Canada so she could pitch it back to Hebard to go one on one with Billings:

Moments later, she drove on Canada again. Ionescu didn’t have a step on Canada, but she saw Chantel Horvat sleeping in the opposite corner and let Lexi Bando do the rest:

UCLA was successful in limiting Ionescu’s easy scoring opportunities in two of their three meetings. Janaury 7 at Pauley Pavillion, Ionescu shot 5-15 and turned it over seven times. The Pac-12 Player of the Year picked the Bruins apart at home, getting to the line 12 times and dishing 12 assists without turning it over. Saturday, Ionescu was kept off the free throw line (one attempt), shot 6-15 from the field and turned it over four times.

Tell an opposing coach that Ionescu is going to post that stat line against them, and they’d take it gladly. Nobody will completely shut Ionescu down, but UCLA got three games to try different things, which undoubtedly allowed Cori Close to learn a lot about her team and its defensive capabilities.

UCLA’s (good) depth problem

There was ground to be gained this championship weekend when it comes to NCAA Tournament seeding, but the resume of either team wasn’t going to take a major hit by losing to the other. That said, Bruins fans ought to be beaming having seen freshman Michaela Onyenwere’s performance on Saturday.

The McDonald’s All-American and Pac-12 All-Freshman selection had eight points, five rebounds, and two blocks in 19 minutes off the bench. She was subbed out with 7:58 to play on Saturday and did not return.

If we’re going to nitpick the final minutes of that game, there’s a case to be made for Kelli Hayes (did not play at all in the fourth) and Onyenwere to have gotten more run.

Onyenwere is not a threat from deep right now, but she knocked down three jumpers on Saturday and took Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Satou Sabally to the rim with authority:

Onyenwere was also effective defensively, largely thanks to her anticipation and quick feet:

She blocked two shots there and altered a few others around the basket throughout the game. You also saw her give Sabally some trouble — Onyenwere made her presence felt in the lane to deter a potential Ionescu drive before getting back out to Sabally, forcing a tough shot with her off hand over her long arms. In that final clip, she baited Sabally into throwing a dangerous pass to Hebard. Onyenwere was all over it and tied Hebard up.

The freshman forward rarely turns it over — 0.8 per game (82nd percentile) or at a rate 10.7% (90th percentile). She’s also been a major contributor on the offensive glass, one of the team’s biggest strengths. The 5’11 forward is averaging 2.5 offensive boards in just 17 minutes per game. Her 14.9% offensive rebound rate places her in the 97th percentile nationally.

Onyenwere’s place in UCLA’s top seven is solidified at this point. She and fellow freshman Chantel Horvat are ready to make a difference now and give the UCLA faithful reason to be excited about the future.

The Summitt’s Russ Steinberg has Oregon as a two seed and UCLA as a three seed in his latest Bracketology update.

Header photo via Eric Evans/University of Oregon

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