The Dallas Wings clinched the final playoff spot when they beat the Portland Fire last night. While the eight playoff teams are officially set, there’s still a lot of room for movement in the standings as teams jockey for home-court advantage and favorable matchups. The eighth-seeded Wings are just three games behind the Las Vegas Aces in third place.
Every game between playoff teams could have massive implications for playoff seeding. Moreover, the Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky could heavily influence the final playoff picture.
Unlike the other teams eliminated from the postseason, the Mercury and Sky have no incentive to lose as many games as possible and improve their 2027 draft pick—and they could hand out some tough losses. The Mercury just got Kelsey Plum back, and the Sky beat New York and Golden State in two of their last four games. Plus, you can never consider a lead save if Sydney Taylor is on the floor for the Sky.
The Sky and Mercury don’t own their picks and want to entice free agents
This season has been a mess for the Sky. After many desperate moves to become a playoff team over the last two offseasons, including sending the third overall pick in 2025 and a 2027 first-round pick swap to Washington for Ariel Atkins, the Sky once again missed the playoffs with a losing record.
Giving up that pick swap aged as badly as it possibly could have. The Mystics are in the playoffs and on track to add another top-three pick. So, Chicago has every incentive in the world to do anything in its power to worsen those lottery odds.
The Mercury also lost their 2027 first-round pick in a gamble. They traded it to the Sparks for Kelsey Plum, who is on an expiring contract. Since the Mercury won 27 games last season, the lottery odds for that pick are bad. For Phoenix, the incentive to win as much as possible to close out the season is that they have to convince Plum to re-sign. Otherwise, giving up Monique Akoa Makani and a first-round pick was an absolute waste.
Plum wants to win. So, the Mercury have to show her that she can win in Phoenix with Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper.
Both teams have several games against playoff teams left
The Sky have a tough remaining schedule. Four of their last five games are against playoff teams, including two against the Washington Mystics. The Mystics will, of course, be eager to hand the Sky two more losses.
The Mercury also still have to face the Mystics, as well as the Wings twice and the Aces. If they beat any of those teams, it could shake up the playoff picture.
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