The new WNBA CBA hasn't been ratified by the league and the union yet, but things are certainly trending in that direction. On Wednesday both groups announced a verbal agreement had been reached, though the details of that agreement have not yet been made public.
Once the deal is signed, the Toronto Tempo and the Portland Fire will hold expansion drafts. This will be the first round of WNBA experiences that will shake up the league — but likely only a little bit. As teams without track records, it may be tough for the Tempo or the Fire to convince any superstars to jump ship and join their squads instead, but both teams are likely to do their best to make that happen anyway.
After the expansion drafts comes a part of the 2026 WNBA season that's getting a lot of attention, though not necessarily because what's been anticipated is an accurate reflection of what will actually take place. Free agency will begin soon afer the expansion drafts, and most of the league's unrestricted free agents will be exchanging proposals and contracts of a different sort with teams throughout the league.
Despite plenty of social media posts that suggest otherwise, it's unlikely the league's biggest stars — think A'ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark, Breanna Stewart, Sabrine Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and more — are going to leave their teams during free agency. For starters, Clark isn't a free agent this year (she's still on her rookie contract), so she couldn't leave Indiana even if she wanted to (and there's absolutely no indication that she does).
But the others on that list could, technically, decamp to other teams. Stewart and Ionescu have both made it clear that staying in New York City is a big priority for both, and Stewart has routinely taken pay cuts to make sure other members of the Liberty are able to stay, too. Jones seems similarly dedicated to the Liberty, and is a big part of the team's success.
And though it's fun to speculate about Wilson leaving the Aces (at least, for everyone except the Aces), it seems incredibly unlikely she would even consider walking away from the team that drafted her, that she helped lead to multiple championships, and that has supported her at every opportunity. Like Stewart, Wilson has also taken pay cuts so that more players on the Aces can be paid appropriately, and many expect her to become the league's first $1+ million player.
Those who are attempting to predict who be tempted away from their teams need to look at the talented role players that populate the league. Though they may not be players that an entire team is built around, they're absolutely crucial to a team's success — and they know it. The larger question is about just how many teams know it, too.