One of the biggest questions hanging over the WNBA offseason to come is where Kelsey Mitchell will play basketball next season. Will she return to the Indiana Fever and her fellow MVP candidate teammate Caitlin Clark? Or will she head to a new team to start a new chapter of her career?
If Clark and the Fever want to win a championship, they need to make the hard decision and let Mitchell go.
Clark and Mitchell are incredible - and flawed
The pairing of Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell this season was explosive. Mitchell put together perhaps the best scoring season by a guard in WNBA history, and Clark was continually setting records for her combination of scoring, shooting and passing. Opposing teams were tied in knots trying to stop both of them at the same time.
Clearly, pairing the two of them together on offense worked out well for the Fever; they had the league's best offense by far, and both Mitchell (3rd) and Clark (4th) finished Top 5 in MVP voting. The problem fell on the other side of the ball.
Neither Clark nor Mitchell are strong defenders (Clark may be one of the W's very worst in individual defense) and that opens up a massive weak spot on the perimeter for the Fever. Despite having an All-Defense level center in Aliyah Boston behind them, Indiana gave up a parade of easy shots all season long.
Despite being multiple points better in offensive rating than any other team, they were only fifth in net rating this season because of a porous defense, the worst of any playoff team (plus the Chicago Sky). When both Clark and Mitchell were on the court, the Fever scored a dominant 118.5 points per 100 -- but were also 3.6 points per 100 worse than league average on defense (stats per databallr.com/wnba). That ballooned to 4.9 points per 100 worse if Boston wasn't there to clean up some of the messes.
It might be tempting to think the Fever could overcome that defensive weakness with offensive firepower, but the WNBA Finals paint a very different picture.
Defense wins championships in the W
The Las Vegas Aces took down the Fever in the first round, then were summarily swept out of the playoffs by the Golden State Valkyries in the second round. The Valkyries had the league's best defense this season, with no weak spots across their entire lineup. Their own starting point guard, Veronica Burton, received a Defensive Player of the Year vote this season.
They will face the Atlanta Dream, who likewise made the Finals after a second-round sweep. They clamped down the New York Liberty, including squeezing the life out of star point guard Sabrina Ionescu. Atlanta was the league's best defense this season, anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Angel Reese.
The different for Atlanta comes in the backcourt; instead of a pair of turnstiles on the perimeter letting opposing guards blow by, the Dream have perhaps the league's best defensive backcourt. When Jordin Canada and All-Defense wing Rhyne Howard shared the court, opponents scored just 103.1 points per 100 -- 5.8 points better than league average.
Mitchell and Clark on the court this season? +6.0 net rating. When Canada and Howard shared the court, they had a +12.7 net rating. Defense matters. And if Caitlin Clark wants to win a title, she needs a stout defender beside her. The same goes for Mitchell and her own title aspirations.
Knowing that Clark and Mitchell are unlikely to win a championship together doesn't necessarily mean the Fever shouldn't try to bring Mitchell back. They can work out a trade down the road to recoup some assets. And Mitchell certainly has to make the best decision for herself and her career. With the drama constantly swirling around Indiana, there is more at stake than just basketball.
On the court, however, Clark and Mitchell make sweet music together. Unfortunately, they also allow opponents to do the same. And as the WNBA Finals show, that sort of weakness is too great to overcome.
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