WNBA Draft Lottery: Which teams can win the No. 1 pick?

The 2027 WNBA Draft projects to be packed with talented players, headlined by USC Trojans two-way star JuJu Watkins.

Who will get the chance the draft Watkins? That will be determined at the WNBA Draft Lottery on Sunday, November 15th. The league will hold a "lottery" to pick the first and second picks in the draft. For many teams, it's the difference between gaining a foundational cornerstone for their franchise and needing to "rebuild" for another season without one.

Which teams have a chance at the No. 1 pick in the draft? Let's run through a quick primer on the WNBA Draft Lottery and which teams are in the mix.

How does the WNBA Draft Lottery work?

Some major sports leagues set their draft order based solely on team records; in the NFL, for example, the team with the worst record picks first. Professional basketball, in both the NBA and the WNBA, has instituted a draft lottery to decrease the incentive to lose.

Whether or not that works, the WNBA's model is unique to them. For every team that missed the playoffs -- seven teams this year after Toronto and Portland were added as expansion teams last season -- they will have so many number combinations. The league will randomly draw two numbers -- one for the first overall pick, and one for the second overall pick.

How many number combinations each team has is based on their two-year record. The worse the record, the more combinations a team has -- and thus the higher chance of being drawn for the top two picks.

For example, the Seattle Storm went just 8-36 this season, the worst record in the league by multiple games. They have the fourth-most combinations, however, because two seasons ago in 2025 they went 23-21, so their two-year total record is 31-57.

The Connecticutt Sun went just 11-33 in each of the last two seasons, giving them a two-year win percentage of only 25 percent. As they move to Houston to become the Comets, they are tied for the worst win percentage with the first-year Toronto Tempo, who went 11-33 as well. They each have 329 of the 1,000 number combinations to try and win the No. 1 pick.

Here is the full draft lottery order, with each team's two-year record and their percentage chance of winning the No. 1 pick.

Who can win the No. 1 pick?

While the current favorite to go first overall is JuJu Watkins, other players such as Hannah Hidalgo, Madison Booker and Mikaylah Williams could work their way into the mix. Which teams will have a shot at drafting the best player in the draft?

The Houston Comets and Toronto Tempo each have around a 1-in-3 chance to win the No. 1 overall pick. That final "third" of the lottery odds are divided between the other five non-playoff teams.

It is not so simple as that, however, because a couple of teams have traded their first-round picks. The Phoenix Mercury have only a 1.2 percent chance at the pick, but no matter where their pick falls it will be sent to the Los Angeles Sparks as a part of the Kelsy Plum trade at this year's deadline. That, in essence, gives the Sparks two small bites at the No. 1 pick apple, with a combined 3.6 percent at the top pick.

Of greater potential impact is the Chicago Sky's first-round pick. Currently slotted at third overall, the Sky have a 16.1 percent chance to leap up and claim the No. 1 pick. Far from landing a generational superstar themselves, however, the Sky will be swapping their pick no matter where it lands with the Washington Mystics, after trading it for Ariel Atkins -- a move that has yet to truly pay off for Chicago.

The most likely outcome is that either the Houston Comets or the Toronto Tempo walk away with the No. 1 pick. In total, however, each of Houston, Toronto, Washington, Seattle, Portland and Los Angeles have a chance at the No. 1 pick.

The 2027 WNBA Draft Lottery will air live on Sunday, November 15 at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. The 2027 WNBA Draft will be held on Monday, April 12, 2027.

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