The Las Vegas Aces are in a bit of a tough spot right now as they try to defend their title. NaLyssa Smith is out for the rest of the season; A’ja Wilson had to miss the World Cup because she wasn’t fully healthy; and Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray played heavy minutes for Team USA while a big part of the league got a lengthy break before the playoffs.
Young and Gray will have to play for the Aces to live up to expectations, so it’s not great that, unlike Wilson, they weren’t able to catch a break. But, fortunately, the Aces’ remaining schedule is fairly easy, and they might get away with easing Young’s and Gray’s minute load over the last four games while still holding on to third place in the standings.
The Aces don’t play another playoff team
The Aces have two games against the Seattle Storm left and one each against the Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury. The Storm are chasing another lottery pick for their rebuild around Dominique Malonga, Awa Fam, and Flau’jae Johnson, and don’t have a ton of incentive to win these last few games.
The Mercury, on the other hand, gave up their first-round pick when they traded for Kelsey Plum. They are also trying to convince her to re-sign in free agency, so they probably want to win a few more games to show Plum what the team could become with her help. However, with Plum injured, the Aces could still beat the Mercury even if Young and Gray don’t play a ton of minutes.
The Sparks are in a similar position. Neither their own pick nor the one they got from the Mercury promises to be a top pick, no matter the outcome of their last four games. Plus, they might want to send Nneka Ogwumike off into retirement with a few more wins. But just like the Mercury, the Sparks simply haven’t been playing great basketball this season and aren’t exactly a scary opponent.
A rested A’ja Wilson, limited minutes from Gray and Young, and solid contributions from everyone else should technically be enough to beat all three teams.
At the same time, the Aces don’t want to risk unnecessary losses
The Aces will have to walk a fine line between resting Young and Gray after the World Cup and holding on to the three-seed. They only have a one-game lead over the Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever.
Sixth place will likely go to New York, Washington, or Dallas. Playing a Liberty team that can seriously bother the Aces in the first round isn’t ideal. Neither is facing an energetic, young, big, and physical Mystics team that has nothing to lose and everything to gain or going up against Paige Bueckers. Still, facing one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this season, the youngest team in the playoffs, or an injured Wings team beats battling Indiana and Atlanta in the first round. Both teams have been playing well recently, and Indiana has given the Aces plenty of trouble this season.
So, it’s in the Aces’ best interest to stay ahead of the Fever and Dream.
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