The Valkyries have one obvious strength: defense. Natalie Nakase’s team is gritty, physical, and utterly committed on defense. Golden State finished the regular season with the third-best defensive rating in the league—a talent that carried the team to most of its wins. The Valkyries’ offense tends to be streaky. They finished tenth in offensive rating.
Meanwhile, the Lynx finished at the top in both categories, and the Valkyries will have to work overtime to slow down Minnesota’s offense. Their paint defense, in particular, will be challenged. During the regular season, the Valkyries allowed the fewest points in the paint. That ability will be tested like never before in the playoffs. The Valkyries will have to slow down Napheesa Collier and the Lynx two or three games in a row.
Defense will be the Valkyries’ biggest asset against the Lynx
The Valkyries lost all four regular-season matchups against the Lynx, but three times, they held the Lynx under 85 points. They also managed to keep the margin at 11 or fewer points three times. The Lynx only really crushed the Valkyries once—in the final game of the regular season. Golden State only shot 28.8% from the field in that game.
The Valkyries will have to make shots to stand a chance against the Lynx, but they will also have to limit the Lynx’s offense to be able to keep up with them. When the Lynx’s offense is firing on all cylinders, it can easily reach around 90 points. That is not a number the Valkyries reached regularly during the regular season.
Natalie Nakase and her team will have to find a way to limit the Lynx’s 3-point attempts and Napheesa Collier’s production. The latter is where the Valkyries’ excellent paint defense comes in. Collier can shoot the three, but only 3.8 of her 15.7 shot attempts per game come from long range. She does most of her damage closer to the basket and isn’t someone most players can guard 1-on-1.
Collier is an MVP candidate and one of the most efficient scorers in the league. If she has a good game, the Lynx are difficult to stop. The Valkyries haven’t always done a good job slowing down Collier. She scored 24, 22, 20, and 19 points in the four games she played against the Valkyries this season.
The Lynx won’t be messing around in the playoffs, desperate to make up for their Game 5 loss in last year’s finals, and the Valkyries should expect Collier to play like the MVP candidate she is as soon as the first game tips off. Expecting Temi Fagbenle, Iliana Rupert, and Monique Billings to guard Collier one-on-one is a lot to ask. The rest of the team will have to be ready to play excellent help defense.