The WNBA has been dominated by its bigs since the league's inception. So many of the greats — Lisa Leslie, Candace Parker, and Tamika Catchings, to name a few — got that distinction by being able to dominate down low, on offense and on defense.
This hasn't changed much. At 6'4, A'ja Wilson, who's currently the best player in the world and arguably the best of all time, has won four MVP awards in her still-young career, and the majority of GMs predict her receiving her fifth this season. Some combination of Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier, and Alyssa Thomas (all superstar bigs) have headlined the Finals for the last six years straight, and they are very often considered to be in a league of their own in the W.
A guard hasn't won WNBA MVP since 2009, when Diana Taurasi won her first and only at 27 years old. With all the next-level guard play permeating across the league now, though, it's only a matter of time until another guard wins. Who will it be, though?
Tier 1: The easy choices
The first two names that immediately come to mind in this conversation are Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers. In her rookie season, Clark came 4th in MVP voting after averaging 19.2 points, 8.4 assists, and contributing to the Fever's first postseason appearance since 2016. Now, after rehabbing an injury that kept her off the court for months, Clark is averaging 24.3 points, nine assists, and five rebounds over four games.
Clark is undeniably a game-changer for the Fever and in the league in general, but there is one thing to consider: since last July, the Fever have gone 18-13 without Clark on the floor. Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston both finished top 20 in scoring last season, and it's hard to make a leakproof case for a Clark MVP if the team continues to do well without her. Still, it would be dishonest to act like Clark isn't high on this list.
Bueckers, who's in her second season, is poised for a superstar-level year. After a historic rookie campaign, the Dallas guard is averaging 20.8, 5.2 assists, and 2.8 rebounds per game. The Wings look like a different team from last year, and there's a real possibility they end this season as a top seed. If the Wings are able to take that step to one of the winningest teams in the league, Bueckers will be catapulted into that MVP conversation. At the end of the day, winning > everything.
It's not all about the youth movement, though. Allisha Gray is one of the league's best, and last year she finished 4th in MVP voting after leading the Dream to the three seed. This year so far, she's having an even better year: she's averaging 25 points and seven rebounds per game on a team that has title aspirations–those are MVP numbers.
Tier 2: All it takes is a breakout season
There are plenty of guards with the skill to be an MVP in this league, but who need to take that next step to prove they can do so for an entire season.
With how Sonia Citron is playing right now in her second season, there's no telling where her ceiling is. The 22-year-old is fearless, and has led the Mystics to tough wins against the Tempo and Fever, as well as a close-fought OT loss against the top-ranked Liberty. Her 20 points per game, paired with Washington's post dominance, makes for some beautiful basketball, and if she's already playing like this, imagine in just 3 years.
Marina Mabrey is on track to have a career year, currently averaging 20.8 points and 4.2 rebounds per game on 40.9% shooting from 3. Her ability to play at her pace without getting sped up is unmatched, and when she's hot from the 3, there's not much opposing defenses can do but pray. This isn't necessarily a surprise to anyone who's watched her before, but after being given the keys to Toronto, Mabrey is playing on a different level. If the Tempo were to, in the next few years, finish at the top of the rankings with Mabrey producing like this, there's certainly potential for her to add an MVP to her trophy case.
Chennedy Carter is another W guard that is absolutely an MVP-level talent. The numbers speak for themselves (19.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game), and this is coming off the bench for the best team in the league. Imagine what she'd be able to do on a team that runs through her. As long as she can stay on the court, Carter can finish her career as one of the best to ever do it, truly.
Of course, it's impossible to predict what will happen; that's what's special about basketball. On any given night, or during any given season, any player can breakout and show the world what they're capable of. There are dozens of young and under-recognized guards around the league who could make that leap, and perhaps the prospect of being the first guard to win MVP since 2009 is an extra motivator to get there.
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