The final day of the 2024 WNBA regular season is finally arriving. Thursday, September 19 will be one of the most tense and electrifying dates in league history, with three teams vying for the No. 8 seed and an appearance in the playoffs on the line.
The outcome of the games on Thursday will go a long way toward determining the manner in which teams define their 2024 season—either as a relative success or as an abject failure.
It's a remarkable amount of pressure to put on the three games that will determine the final standings, but seven teams have already clinched their appearances. The New York Liberty at 32-7 and Minnesota Lynx at 30-9 set the pace for the WNBA and will thus occupy the top two seeds.
The 27-12 Connecticut Sun and 26-13 Las Vegas Aces have locked up home court advantage during the first round, with their similar records leading to Thursday intrigue over final seeding.
The 24-15 Seattle Storm are locked in at No. 5, while the 20-19 Indiana Fever and 19-20 Phoenix Mercury are the current No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. The question then becomes: Which of the three teams vying for the final postseason spot will make it?
It'll all come down to the 14-25 Atlanta Dream, and the 13-26 Chicago Sky and Washington Mystics—all of which have a path to the postseason.
The question has thus become: Which team will make it?
How the Atlanta Dream can qualify for the 2024 WNBA Playoffs
The most likely outcome on Thursday is that Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Tina Charles will lead the Atlanta Dream to the 2024 WNBA Playoffs. There are three different scenarios in which that could play out, including one that signals Atlanta controlling its own destiny.
If Atlanta wins against the world-beating Liberty, it's in—and if all three of the Dream, Mystics, and Sky lose, the same result would transpire.
The trickier of the three outcomes is one that would see the Dream and Sky lose, but the Mystics win. In that scenario, Atlanta would still make the playoffs and thus go on to compete against the seemingly unstoppable Liberty in the first round of the playoffs.
A team with Charles, Gray, and Howard will always stand a chance to pull off an unfathomable upset, however, making this outcome particularly intriguing.
How the Chicago Sky can qualify for the 2024 WNBA Playoffs
The Chicago Sky can reach the 2024 WNBA Playoffs under one scenario. The obvious necessity is that Chicago wins its game on Thursday against the Sun, which will be a tall task unto itself—due in no small part to its recent injury woes.
From there, Chicago would need both Atlanta and Washington to lose—thus making their postseason odds the most complex of the three vying franchises.
The upside for Chicago is that Atlanta has to play the No. 1 seed Liberty and the Mystics must play the streaking Fever, which have reason to go all-out in their final regular season game. The downside is that Connecticut is one of the best teams in the WNBA.
The Sky can only hope Chennedy Carter, their leading scorer, will be healthy and ready to go for the biggest game of the season.
How the Washington Mystics can qualify for the 2024 WNBA Playoffs
While Atlanta has the highest number of favorable outcomes, a case can be made that Washington is in the best position to succeed. If Washington defeats Indiana and both Atlanta and Chicago lose, then it will make the playoffs.
With Atlanta playing the No. 1 seed Liberty and Chicago encountering the No. 3 seed Sun, Washington may have the most favorable matchup—although Indiana is red-hot.
Chicago playing Connecticut without Angel Reese hurts its odds, and the absence of Carter could be devastating—especially as Connecticut plays to secure a better record than Las Vegas. Unfortunately, New York has nothing left to play for during the regular season, which could favor Atlanta.
The final day of the regular season is always full of surprises, however, and Washington is looking to pull off the most unlikely of postseason appearances.