You could see it in the way Game 1 of the WNBA Finals ended: the Atlanta Dream were gassed, and the Golden State Valkyries, as always, were ready to pounce when the Dream dropped the ball.
Much has been made of Angel Reese’s scoreless second half and how many three-pointers Atlanta shot and missed as they gave away their fourth-quarter lead in a 68-64 series-opening loss. But the biggest issue affecting the Dream’s chances of evening the Finals at one game apiece tonight (8 p.m.) rests on another adjustment: how they use their bench.
For the most part these playoffs, head coach Karl Smesko has generally kept his rotations tight, with seven players (eight tops) getting minutes. When Allisha Gray has been healthy, that’s meant Izzy Borlase and DeWanna Bonner being the only players off the bench to play heavy minutes, with a sprinkling of Te-Hina Paopao and Madina Okot here and there.
After seeing the Valkyries’ incredible balance—only three players (Gabby Williams, Veronica Burton, and Kaila Charles) played 30 minutes or more with a 10-deep rotation—versus the Dream’s dogged reliance on its starters, all of which played 30 minutes or more, fans want to see more from their bench.
And they have a point.
Sort of.
Why playing the bench is good and bad for Atlanta
On one hand, Smesko absolutely does need to play one bench player, Madina Okot, slightly more in this series going forward.
Okot’s size and ability to score in the post give the Dream something they don’t typically have outside of Reese, who has her hands full going up against All-Defensive center Kiah Stokes. The Valkyries want teams to force the ball inside against Stokes, an elite rim protector, but Okot showed in a limited sample size against the Valkyries that she’s big enough to score anyway (11 points per game on 78% shooting over three regular-season games). As such, giving Okot minutes will almost certainly be the first adjustment Smesko makes in an almost-must-win Game 2 and beyond.
But there’s a caveat to this that a lot of Dream fans haven’t wanted to reckon with: more Okot (and more bench, in general) has often meant more mistakes.
The numbers aren't pretty: the Dream averaged the second-fewest bench points in the league this year and had the second-lowest bench plus-minus of the eight playoff teams. While that could be dismissed as Smesko's refusal to play them, one should consider that the bench's untrustworthiness is exactly why he didn't use them.
While Okot and Paopao, in particular, have the potential to add some offensive energy off the bench, they’ve both been major defensive liabilities at times this season. Okot can be prone to leaving her feet unnecessarily and getting out of position, which has resulted in quick foul trouble often this year. Additionally, she’s still prone to dead-ball turnovers like traveling and illegal screens, which you can’t have in the Finals. Meanwhile, Paopao simply doesn’t have the size or athleticism to guard anyone on Golden State, meaning you’re counting on her to outscore her matchup whenever she’s in the game—something she’s generally been unable to do.
You could, of course, go with a few minutes of Sika Kone, who has the physicality and size to impact the defensive end against Golden State but provides no discernable offensive advantage.
And therein lies the problem when you’re facing a team like the Valkyries:
Playing the bench more against them plays into their hands because their bench is better than yours and is expertly deployed by head coach Natalie Nakase for maximum effect. Meanwhile, playing the starters until their legs fall off also benefits Golden State because they make sure their best players are fresher than your starters in crunch time.
Ultimately, going with the starters in an all-in attempt to steal Game 1 wasn’t the terrible move from Smesko everyone thought it was. The bigger problem is that they didn’t hit shots, including some painfully open looks, when it mattered. Fatigue may have been part of that, of course. But remember: Sunday was the first game the Dream had lost since August 29. Why not stick with what got you to the dance and see what happened?
Now, the Dream have to be ready to implement Plan B: taking the risk and playing the bench more, especially Okot, to steal Game 2 and prolong the series. But that approach will require walking a razor-thin margin between keeping Reese, Rhyne Howard, Jordin Canada, and Allisha Gray fresher for the finish and risking their bench getting exposed.
Getting the balance wrong could essentially end this series tonight.
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