This has not been the season the New York Liberty imagined when they re-signed Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu and added Satou Sabally in free agency. Sabally has barely played and is still out; Ionescu is averaging her lowest number of points per game since 2021 while shooting a career-worst 29.5% on 3-pointers; and the team is firmly stuck in the bottom half of the playoff picture.
According to The Athletic’s playoff projections, New York has a 35% chance of finishing eighth, a 33% chance of finishing seventh, and a 17% chance of holding on to sixth place in the standings. The Minnesota Lynx, Golden State Valkyries, and Las Vegas Aces are most likely to fill out the top three in that order.
Technically, with Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu, the Liberty have the talent and experience to pull off a first-round upset against a top team. The question is whether rookie head coach Chris DeMarco can push the right buttons and get the most out of his big three and the supporting cast against one of the best coaches in the WNBA right now.
It seems unlikely. Betting on a rookie head coach with no previous WNBA experience to outmaneuver Cheryl Reeve or Becky Hammon would be ridiculous—even with NaLyssa Smith’s season-ending injury presenting Hammon with a tough challenge. Moreover, Natalie Nakase at least has two playoff games under her belt as a head coach and won two titles under Hammon. She’s unquestionably one of the brightest rising stars in the coaching ranks.
Playing Las Vegas would probably still be the best-case scenario for the Liberty
If you have to pick between the overwhelming championship favorite, the defending champions with the best player in the world, and the best defense in the league, there are no good options. However, the Aces would be the least bad option for the Liberty.
They won two of the three regular-season matchups and the Commissioner’s Cup final, although the latter shouldn’t count as much, as the Aces were without A’ja Wilson. Still, at least the Liberty know that they can beat the Aces, and losing NaLyssa Smith really hurts Las Vegas’ postseason potential. This late in the season, there’s just no way to replicate what she can do next to Wilson. So, while Hammon may still coach circles around DeMarco in a series, the Liberty’s chances against the Aces seem better than against the Lynx and Valkyries.
The Liberty lost all three regular-season games against the Valkyries. In their final matchup, New York scored a season-low 60 points, struggling with Golden State’s stifling defense. That doesn’t inspire much confidence for a best-of-three first-round series in which the Valkyries would have home-court advantage.
New York and Minnesota are currently tied 1-1 in the regular-season series with one more game ot go after the World Cup break. Despite that win, a team with two MVP candidates that has only lost 9 games all season long and is led by the winningest coach in league history, just isn’t a team you want to see in the playoffs. The Liberty may be able to steal one game, but they’re unlikely to beat the Lynx in a series.
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