The WNBA has used many different playoff formats in its thirty years of existence. It started with single-elimination games before implementing best-of-three series between the top four teams in the league. They then changed it to an East-West conference format for several years, but abandoned the conferences in 2015. Until 2022, the top two seeds got a bye to the semifinals.
Since 2022, all eight seeds have to play in the first round, with the top four teams getting home-court advantage and being “rewarded” by facing the lower seeds. That reward has worked out well for the top seeds so far. In four years, no number-one seed has ever lost in the first round. In fact, all of them swept their first-round opponents in two games. In 2022, the Las Vegas Aces swept the Phoenix Mercury. A year later, they did the same to the Chicago Sky. In 2024, the New York Liberty swept the Atlanta Dream, and the Golden State Valkyries suffered the same fate at the hands of the Minnesota Lynx in 2025.
That could change this year with the Liberty occupying the final playoff spot. They could give the Lynx some trouble.
The New York Liberty can at least win one first-round game
New York is not a traditional eight seed. Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, and Leonie Fiebich just won a title together two years ago. They may have a new head coach and a different supporting cast around them, but they’re still a dangerous team. Stewart proved all over again in the World Cup that she’s one of the best players in the world and rises to the occasion in the biggest moments.
Moreover, the Liberty are a bad matchup for the Lynx. They beat them in the 2024 WNBA Finals with the same veteran cores going up against each other—although the addition of Olivia Miles makes Minnesota a different team. They also beat the Lynx twice in the regular season, including a big 93-81 victory over the weekend. They held Napheesa Collier to 14 points, and Olivia Miles matched her five assists with five turnovers, which is very uncharacteristic for the rookie phenom.
The Lynx have been great this season, although they stumbled a bit to close things out, and Cheryl Reeve is an excellent coach. Still, New York has a chance to win at least one game and even to complete the upset. They are the worst possible first-round opponent the Lynx could have drawn.
The Lynx’s only benefits of finishing with the No. 1 seed are that they will have home-court advantage in Games 1 and 3 and that they are on the opposite side of the bracket from the Las Vegas Aces.
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