One of the Atlanta Dream’s biggest assets this season was their ability to win the turnover battle. Between the three league leaders in steals per game and their overall strong defense, they forced a ton of turnovers. They also didn’t commit many themselves, averaging just 13.4 per game. Jordin Canada was one of the most ball-secure point guards in the regular season, averaging 7.3 assists and just 2.4 turnovers per game. No other player who averaged at least six assists per game averaged fewer turnovers than she did.
In Games 4 and 5 of the WNBA Finals, the Dream struggled to force turnovers from the Valkyries—Canada, Rhyne Howard, and Angel Reese combined for just four steals over the last two games—and they committed an uncharacteristic number of turnovers. That lack of ball security and focus cost them both games.
They committed 18 turnovers in Game 4 and conceded 16 points off those turnovers. It was even worse in Game 5, as the Valkyries scored 21 points off the Dream’s 17 turnovers. Every starter turned the ball over at least three times. Meanwhile, the Valkyries’ starters all combined for just four turnovers.
Game 6 is a must-win game for Atlanta. They would hand the Valkyries the championship trophy with a loss. Winning a do-or-die game to give themselves another shot at the title will be impossible if they cannot take care of the ball and continue to waste possessions.
Winning the possession battle is especially important when shots aren’t falling
The Dream have struggled to make the most of their possessions in the last two games. Either they turned the ball over or they missed. They shot just 36% from the field in Game 4 and 29% in Game 5.
Especially their 3-pointers aren’t falling. Rhyne Howard, Jordin Canada, Allisha Gray, DeWanna Bonner, and Isobel Borlase are all shooting 28.1% or worse from behind the arc in the finals. Howard has found her shot in the last two games, but that alone is not enough to beat the Valkyries if no one else is scoring reliably.
Those offensive struggles only make it more important for the Dream to win the possession battle and not turn the ball over so often. When shots aren’t falling efficiently, you better go out and give yourself as many opportunities to score as possible.
Refocusing the offense and giving themselves better opportunities to score is how the Dream can beat the Valkyries. Golden State isn’t scoring either. Their three finals victories came in low-scoring, physical, slow-paced brick fests. That’s the type of game they thrive in. But when the Dream are matching the Valkyries’ defensive pressure AND running an effective offense, they have the upper hand. That’s easier said than done against the number-one defense in the league, but the Dream managed to do it before.
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