If the regular season ended today, the Dallas Wings would have to face the Minnesota Lynx in the first round. That matchup would be fun in many ways. It would pit the top two picks in this year’s draft against each other as well as Olivia Miles and Paige Bueckers, two of the best young shotmakers and offensive creators in the game.
However, for the Wings, it would probably also mean a quick end to their first playoff run since 2023. Minnesota won all four regular-season matchups, including three without Napheesa Collier, and has a ton of playoff experience between Collier, Natasha Howard, Courtney Williams, and Kayla McBride. Plus, Cheryl Reeve has coached many, many playoff and championship teams and is a master at making adjustments and pushing all the right buttons. Jose Fernandez, meanwhile, is in his first year as a WNBA head coach.
Minnesota is not a team the Wings would match up well with in a playoff series. With a three-game lead over the Valkyries and Collier looking more and more like the MVP candidate she was the last two seasons, Minnesota is unlikely to vacate the number-one spot in the standings. So, Dallas needs to lock in and string together some wins to avoid that first-round matchup.
There are no easy first-round matchups
Last year, there was just one first-round sweep when the Lynx took care of business against the Valkyries in two games. The opening round should be just as competitive this year, as there are no easy matchups. Even the young Washington Mystics won’t be an easy out with their physicality and defensive tenacity.
There may not be any easy matchups for the Wings, but there are certainly better ones than the Lynx. They beat the Aces twice in the regular season, so there’s at least a sense of hope that they can maybe do the same in the playoffs.
The Valkyries, meanwhile, may have won both regular-season matchups so far, but they don’t have a ton of playoff experience or a real go-to star who can just get a bucket when things get ugly.
Atlanta was also a bad matchup in the regular season, as Dallas just doesn’t have the defense to cover the paint as well as Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray on the perimeter. However, the Dream also choked its first-round matchup against the short-handed Fever last year.
Speaking of the Fever, that would be an incredibly fun matchup with Bueckers and Caitlin Clark going up against each other. But the two teams haven’t met since the season opener, so it’s difficult to evaluate what a series would look like at the moment.
The Mystics mercilessly exposed the Wings’ lack of paint defense in their last two meetings and got better by adding Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. Last but not least, the Liberty’s regular-season record does not accurately represent the talent on the roster. Both are so close to the Wings in the standings that they are unlikely to meet in the first round, barring a surge into the top half of the playoff picture by one or two of them.
Any matchup the Wings end up with will be tough, but having to face the Lynx would be brutal.
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