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Preview: Washington eyes a return trip to the WNBA Finals

By Jenn Hatfield

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 19: Elena Delle Donne #11 of the Washington Mystics celebrates with Emma Meesseman #33 after Game Two of the 2019 WNBA playoffs at St Elizabeths East Entertainment & Sports Arena on September 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 19: Elena Delle Donne #11 of the Washington Mystics celebrates with Emma Meesseman #33 after Game Two of the 2019 WNBA playoffs at St Elizabeths East Entertainment & Sports Arena on September 19, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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“What is this arena?” “Who plays there?” “Are they good?”

These are the questions I get most nights after Washington Mystics games, when an Uber or Lyft driver picks me up from the Entertainment and Sports Arena. As it turns out, the WNBA’s best team is also DC’s best-kept secret, and I consider it part of my job as a reporter to let as many people in on it as possible. So I explain what the arena is, who the Mystics are, and how amazing they have been this season.

Or, at least, I try to. Because how can you concisely explain what a historically good offense, led by the near-unanimous WNBA MVP, is like? How do you convey what it was like watching a WNBA semifinal Game 2 in which said MVP was the team’s fourth-leading scorer—but one of six Mystics in double figures? Or how the Mystics scored a franchise-playoff-record 103 points on the Las Vegas Aces—the league’s best defensive team in the regular season—and committed only six turnovers in 40 minutes? “Yes, they’re really good” seems inadequate.

A 12-point win in Game 2 gave the Mystics a 2-0 series lead over the Aces, meaning that the Mystics have three chances to get one more win and advance to the WNBA Finals. But the Aces will be dealt a more favorable hand for Game 3 as the series moves cross-country to the Mandalay Bay Events Center for Game 3 (and Game 4 if necessary).

Here are three things to watch for Washington as it tries to get a royal flush in this series:

Will Emma Meesseman continue to be the Mystics’ ace on offense?

In the first two games of the series, Meesseman has scored 57 points on 62% shooting, including seven 3-pointers in 11 attempts. She has topped her season high of 25 points and exceeded her season averages in rebounds, assists, and steals in both games so far. “She ain’t missing any shots,” Aces center Liz Cambage said after Game 2.

It’s clear that stopping Meesseman will be a large part of the Aces’ game plan on Sunday. “Meesseman has hurt us,” Aces head coach Bill Laimbeer said following Game 2. “We have to do something about that. … we’re just leaving her open and haven’t been able to recover fast enough. We’re going to have to make some adjustments.” The question is, will those adjustments be enough to slow down Meesseman, whose confidence is high following two stellar outings? “It’s easier to take my shot when it goes in,” she said in Thursday’s postgame press conference, drawing chuckles from the media. “… [The Aces] left me open and I’ll take it now.” In addition, with so much of the Aces’ defensive attention turning to Meesseman, what might open up for other Mystics players?

Will Washington get more open 3-pointers—or fourth-quarter Kristi Toliver for longer stretches?

If Las Vegas opts to double-team Meesseman in the paint, Washington’s guards could be the beneficiaries. That would be a high-risk strategy for the Aces, as Washington made a league-leading 9.3 three-pointers per game in the regular season. It’s hard to pick a guard to help off of, as Natasha Cloud, Ariel Atkins, Kristi Toliver, and Aerial Powers are all more than capable 3-point shooters. But outside of Meesseman, the Mystics have been solid but not lethal from beyond the arc in this series, making 19 in two games while shooting just under 40%. Atkins (3-12 shooting, 1-4 from 3-point range) has been in a slump in the first two games, and Toliver is returning from a knee injury and still finding her rhythm.

If the Aces help off Toliver, they should at least consider sticking to her in the fourth quarter. In this series, Toliver has not hunted her shot much in the first three quarters, shooting just 2-7. “That’s so hard,” Mystics forward Elena Delle Donne said on Tuesday. “Coming off an injury and being out for [five weeks], and you come back and the first game is the semifinals.” But in the fourth quarters, Toliver has “had some Kristi moments,” as Delle Donne put it. She has hit 5 of 9 fourth-quarter shots and 2 of 5 three-pointers, including one on Thursday night directly in front of Laimbeer.

I’d bet that Laimbeer would rather roll the dice by helping off of Atkins, if only because of his history with Toliver. Two years ago, the Mystics upset the third-seeded New York Liberty in a single-elimination game, thanks in large part to a playoff-record nine 3-pointers from Toliver. The Liberty’s head coach at the time? Bill Laimbeer.

Can the Mystics stop Kelsey Plum?

The Mystics must make defensive adjustments of their own in Game 3, starting with stopping Aces guard Kelsey Plum. Plum has been wheeling and dealing in this series, scoring 35 points in two games on 63% shooting and adding a whopping 19 assists. As High Post Hoops’ Ben Dull wrote after Game 2, “Plum is running the team in this series, excelling in every aspect—finding her own offense, getting to the rim, setting her teammates up and mercilessly pushing the pace at every opportunity.” Plum’s teammate Kayla McBride explained after Game 1, “She loves a big moment. … She brings the energy. It’s just kind of who she is and who she’s becoming in this league.”

Luckily, the Mystics have two perimeter players who made the WNBA’s All-Defensive Second Team this year in Cloud and Atkins. They will likely share the responsibility of containing Plum in Game 3, and both will need to step up. The Mystics have struggled on defense in this series, posting a 114.8 defensive rating, and Cloud and Atkins are no exception. Their individual defensive ratings in the playoffs are much worse than their regular-season averages, and both have negative win shares on defense in the playoffs, which suggests that they are not consistently making winning plays on defense in this series.

That said, the poor defensive numbers may be partly due to a small sample size, as the Mystics have only played two playoff games to date. And Cloud and Atkins have certainly been active on defense, swiping a combined five steals in two games. Shey Peddy, who has both played and coached for Washington this season, explained after Game 2 that the Mystics will have to stop Plum by “closing in her space, [not letting] her go to the rim as easy, stopping her in transition, and just throw[ing] different bodies at her.” If they can do just one of those things—ideally, taking away the wide-open layups Plum has gotten at will—that will go a long way toward getting a win in what will certainly be a hostile road environment.

Unless otherwise hyperlinked, all statistics are courtesy of WNBA.com and the game box score.

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