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Did the Connecticut Sun get equal value for Chiney Ogwumike?

By Jenn Hatfield

CHARLOTTE, NC - FEBRUARY 15: Chiney Ogwumike of the Connecticut Sun poses for a portrait during the 2019 NBA All-Star circuit on February 15, 2019 at the Sheraton Hotel in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Michael J. LeBrecht II/NBAE via Getty Images)
CHARLOTTE, NC - FEBRUARY 15: Chiney Ogwumike of the Connecticut Sun poses for a portrait during the 2019 NBA All-Star circuit on February 15, 2019 at the Sheraton Hotel in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Michael J. LeBrecht II/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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A brief history of top picks dealt.

Over the weekend, the Connecticut Sun traded two-time All-Star Chiney Ogwumike to the Los Angeles Sparks in exchange for a first-round pick in the 2020 WNBA Draft. Reactions to the trade ranged from shock to confusion: it’s hard to fault Los Angeles for adding an All-Star, but it’s unclear how well the 6’4 Ogwumike fits in a crowded Sparks frontcourt. For Connecticut, the trade cleared up their own frontcourt logjam, but the return for Ogwumike, a former No. 1 draft pick, seemed low.

Reports have suggested that Ogwumike threatened to leave the WNBA if she was not traded to Los Angeles, which may have affected what Connecticut could get in return. Sun coach Curt Miller claimed he was happy with the draft pick and chose that option over an unnamed Sparks player. But, leaving the emotions out of it, how does this trade stack up to past trades for former lottery picks?

Using draft and trade data from Across the Timeline, I counted 12 two-team trades from 2015 to 2019 (including the Ogwumike trade) that included a former top-4 pick in the WNBA Draft. These trades show that swapping a former lottery pick for a single draft pick is not unheard of. In the past five seasons, Connecticut traded former No. 4 pick Elizabeth Williams for a first-round pick, and Phoenix traded former No. 3 pick Monique Currie for a second-round pick. And Tulsa essentially traded former No. 2 pick Odyssey Sims to Los Angeles for a second-round pick in 2017 (the teams also swapped first-round picks in the same deal).

However, of that group, only Ogwumike had made an All-Star team before being traded, suggesting that she was playing at a higher level up to that point. In the past five years, there were four two-team trades involving lottery picks who had been named to at least one WNBA All-Star team prior to the trade (those players in bold):

  • 2019: Connecticut traded Chiney Ogwumike to Los Angeles for a 2020 first-round pick
  • 2017: Chicago traded Elena Delle Donne to Washington for Stefanie Dolson, Kahleah Copper, and a 2017 first-round pick
  • 2015: Seattle traded Renee Montgomery and a 2016 second-round pick to Minnesota for Monica Wright*
  • 2015: Seattle traded Camille Little and Shekinna Stricklen* to Connecticut for Renee Montgomery, a 2015 first-round pick, and a 2015 second-round pick
  • 2015: Chicago traded Epiphanny Prince to New York for Cappie Pondexter

*Wright and Stricklen were top-4 draft picks, but did not make an All-Star team prior to being traded.

These trades show that, in the past five years, Ogwumike was the only player of her caliber to be traded for a single draft pick. The four other trades all netted multiple players and/or draft picks, or netted a single player who herself had been a top-4 pick. It’s certainly possible that this draft pick eventually becomes an All-Star, but that’s far from a guarantee and therefore a very different proposition than trading for a player who has already proven herself in the WNBA.

Another interesting trend is that Connecticut has been relatively active in dealing its top-4 picks over the past ten years. Since 2010, the team has now traded four of its former lottery picks and three of its former No. 1 picks. Here are the details of those trades:

  • 2019: Traded Chiney Ogwumike (drafted No. 1 in 2014) to Los Angeles for a 2020 first-round pick
  • 2016: Traded Elizabeth Williams (drafted No. 4 in 2015) to Atlanta for a 2016 first-round pick
  • 2014: Traded Tina Charles (drafted No. 1 in 2010) and a 2015 third-round pick to New York for Kelsey Bone, Alyssa Thomas, and a 2015 first-round pick
  • 2010: Traded Lindsay Whalen (drafted No. 1 in 2004) and a 2010 first-round pick to Minnesota for Renee Montgomery and a 2010 first-round pick

The Williams trade is the closest analog to the Ogwumike trade, even though Ogwumike has a longer resume than Williams had at the time of the trade. Williams was drafted at No. 4 and did not make an All-Star team in her time in Connecticut (though she would make the 2017 team while playing for Atlanta). But it’s too simplistic to say that Ogwumike was traded for less than she was worth because she wanted out of Connecticut, and therefore the team had less leverage in a trade. Charles was also unhappy in Connecticut and was reportedly willing to sit out the 2014 season if she was not traded. Whalen did not give the Sun the same ultimatum, but she had long wanted to play for Minnesota; the 2010 trade was the culmination of a six-year effort by the Lynx to get her back to her home state. Both of those trades netted more in return than the Ogwumike deal.

Both sets of trades shown above suggest that the Sun got a relatively low return for Ogwumike. She is the only former All-Star and lottery pick in the past five years, and the only such Sun player in the past ten years, to be traded for a single draft pick. It’s possible that timing was a factor here: when the trade was finalized, training camps were just over one week away. That left Connecticut with little ability to hold out in hopes of a better offer, and with Ogwumike willing to walk away from the WNBA if she wasn’t traded, it was now or never for Connecticut.

Ultimately, evaluating this deal comes down to how high the 2020 first-round pick ends up being and how good the player selected becomes. Los Angeles could be a very good team this season with a frontcourt that now boasts three All-Stars in Ogwumike, her sister Nneka, and Candace Parker. Because the WNBA Draft awards the non-playoff teams the first four picks and then proceeds in reverse order of record, the better the Sparks are, the worse the Sun’s pick is next spring. The worse the pick, the harder it is to get an impact player. If Connecticut’s pick becomes a key contributor for the Sun, this trade will look better in hindsight, while if the player drafted is ultimately a non-factor in the league, the Sun will have essentially let Ogwumike leave for free. The latter would actually be the worst possible outcome for the Sun, worse even than if they had let Ogwumike walk away from the WNBA, because of the on-court impact Ogwumike is expected to have for Los Angeles.

The Sun rolled the dice with the Ogwumike trade, taking a draft pick in compensation and acceding to their All-Star’s wishes. We’ll see this season how the trade benefits the Sparks, but it will take several more to determine how this trade pans out for Connecticut.

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