Baylor and Mississippi State have bigs, but who has the backcourt edge?

Don’t sleep on these backcourts.

Entering this season, Baylor and Mississippi State were both among the teams that pundits thought could make the 2019 Final Four in Tampa, Florida. The two teams had similar narratives: they each had All-American centers returning for their senior seasons, but the guards around them were question marks. Mississippi State graduated four senior starters from its 2017-18 team, while Baylor graduated two of the three guards who played the most minutes a season ago and dismissed the third in September.

Both teams have lived up to those lofty expectations this season and earned No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. The Lady Bears are 31-1 (21-0 in the Big 12) and lead the nation in total rebounding rate, assists per game, blocks per game, and opponent shooting percentage. As expected, Kalani Brown and Lauren Cox have been virtually unstoppable in the paint, combining for 28 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 blocks per game. Both players were named to the All-Big 12 First Team, and Cox won the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

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Teaira McCowan and Anriel Howard have been equally formidable in the frontcourt for Mississippi State. The duo is averaging 33 points, 22 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game to lead the Bulldogs to a 29-2 record (17-1 in the SEC). The Bulldogs are outscoring teams by an average of 28.7 points per game and rank first in the nation in scoring margin per game, offensive rebounding rate, and Her Hoop Stats rating. McCowan was named SEC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, and Howard was named first-team All-SEC.

Regardless of their elite post players, Baylor and Mississippi State would not be No. 1 seeds without strong performances from their guards. But which team’s guards have been better—and, by extension, which team’s guards are more likely to help get their team to Tampa?

There are a few ways to answer this question, and in this article, I’ll look at two. The first way is to look at how many points, assists, and other stats the starting guards for each team are contributing this season compared to last season’s starters. In other words, how much of last season’s contributions have this year’s starters replaced? The second way is to look at how much this season’s starters have increased their production from last season as they’ve moved into the starting lineup and assumed more responsibility.

Which team has replaced more of what it lost?

Mississippi State graduated four seniors last season: Victoria Vivians, Roshunda Johnson, Blair Schaefer, and Morgan William. The four guards who play the most minutes this season for the Bulldogs are Jordan Danberry, Jazzmun Holmes, Chloe Bibby, and Andra Espinoza-Hunter. (Unfortunately, Bibby suffered a season-ending ACL injury in January, but she averaged nearly twice as many minutes as the next guard off the Bulldogs bench, Bre’Amber Scott, so I include Bibby here.) Baylor lost Kristy Wallace, Dekeiya Cohen, and Alexis Morris; this season’s replacements are Chloe Jackson, DiDi Richards, and Juicy Landrum.

Baylor and Mississippi State are actually getting more steals and assists per game from their primary guards this season than they did a season ago. Chloe Jackson leads Baylor with 5.4 assists and 1.7 steals per game this season, which are better than any of the Lady Bears’ guard trio last season. Likewise, Mississippi State’s Jazzmun Holmes leads her team with 5.4 assists and 1.9 steals per game, which are equal to or better than any of the Bulldogs’ starters from a season ago.

The two teams have also gotten a respectable amount of scoring from their guards this season. Jackson and Landrum are double-figure scorers for Baylor, as are Danberry and Bibby (before her injury) for Mississippi State. This should be enough scoring punch to complement the teams’ elite post games.

The biggest difference between these two sets of guards is their three-point shooting. Mississippi State has replaced barely 60 percent of its three-point shots from last season; its primary guards make 42 percent of their 3-pointers, up slightly from last year’s 40 percent, but they only attempt 9.3 3-pointers per game this season compared to 16.4 last season. Baylor has replaced over 80% of its guards’ three-point shooting from last season and is shooting 39% from behind the arc. However, the Lady Bears’ guards are only attempting 4.4 3-pointers per game this season, well below the Bulldogs. Each team has looked to pound the ball inside even more this season than a year ago, but Mississippi State’s guards appear to be either more open for or willing to take 3-pointers than Baylor’s guards.

Advantage: Baylor

Which team’s guards have improved more from last season to this season?

Not counting Espinoza-Hunter and Jackson, both of whom joined their respective teams this season as transfers, or the injured Bibby, two guards for each team have grown from bench players last year to primary contributors this season. Here’s how their stats stack up:

Remarkably, both duos have increased their statistical production in virtually every category. Danberry and Holmes have each seen their minutes double for Mississippi State, and they have rewarded head coach Vic Schaefer with 14 additional points and 5 additional assists. Danberry has particularly improved her shooting, upping her scoring from 2.8 points per game last season to 13.2 this season and increasing her effective field goal percentage by over 11 points (37.0% to 48.4%). Holmes has doubled her assists per game and improved her assist-to-turnover ratio from an already-excellent 2.76 last season to 4.37 this season.

For Baylor, Landrum and Richards have also played more minutes for head coach Kim Mulkey this season and have likewise increased their production, though not to the same extent as the Bulldogs’ guards. By herself, Landrum has attempted half of the Lady Bears’ 3-pointers this season, making 1.7 per game en route to averaging 11.1 points per game. Those stats are up from 1.3 3-pointers and 7.4 points per game a year ago. Richards is averaging 4.0 assists per game, up from 1.6 a season ago, and 6.3 points per game, up from 5.1 a season ago.

Advantage: Mississippi State

In short, Baylor and Mississippi State have both had excellent guard play this season, and the production has come from a combination of returning players who have taken on bigger roles and impactful transfers. Baylor has been able to replace a bigger percentage of the statistical production it lost, but Mississippi State lost more. Luckily for Mississippi State, the two starters who were bench players for the Bulldogs a year ago have increased their contributions by leaps and bounds. Ultimately, both teams are well positioned to make a deep March run, and with any luck, we’ll see this debate settled on the court in the Final Four.

(All statistics are courtesy of Her Hoop Stats and represent games through March 17.)

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