Around the Big Ten: Gustafson and McGuff, what to watch for in Indy

Statistical breakdown of the Big Ten awards and tourney preview

On Saturday, Maryland clinched the Big Ten regular season title outright, and on Monday, the Terps racked up several Big Ten postseason awards, including Coach of the Year (Brenda Frese), Freshman of the Year (Taylor Mikesell) and two first-team All-Big Ten selections (Mikesell and Kaila Charles). This week’s stats column takes a closer look at some of the conference’s postseason awards and offers some numbers that could make a difference in this week’s Big Ten tournament, which starts on Wednesday.

Megan Gustafson was the clear choice for Big Ten Player of the Year

In January, I detailed the record-setting season that Iowa’s Megan Gustafson is having this year, above even what she accomplished last year. She has not slowed down since, currently leading the nation in points per game with 27.7. That leads the Big Ten by a country mile: Penn State’s Teniya Page is second in the conference and 35th in the nation with 19.4 points per game this season. Gustafson is also the most efficient scorer in the conference, averaging 1.46 points per scoring attempt despite being the primary focus of opposing defenses. By herself, Gustafson is contributing more than one-third of the Hawkeyes’ 80.1 points per game. To put it simply, Gustafson has been accomplishing unprecedented things for two seasons now, and you should watch her play for the Hawkeyes while you still can.

Kevin McGuff arguably should have won Big Ten Coach of the Year

Brenda Frese is a fantastic coach and a deserving choice for Big Ten Coach of the Year, but if I could have voted, I would have picked Ohio State’s Kevin McGuff. The Buckeyes entered the 2018-19 season with four returning players, the fewest in the Big Ten. The quartet had combined for zero starts and fewer than seven points per game in 2017-18. In total, the Buckeyes lost 93 percent of their points and 87 percent of their minutes from last season.

Despite all of the personnel losses, McGuff has led Ohio State to a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten this season and a first-round bye in the conference tournament. He has done it in part by relying on graduate transfers: he signed five this season, becoming the only Power 5 coach to sign more than two. (However, only four have played this year, as former Cleveland State star Ashanti Abshaw tore her ACL in the preseason.) Freshmen Dorka Juhasz and Janai Crooms are also contributing, averaging a combined 20 points and 12 rebounds per game. Of the returning players, forward Makayla Waterman has had the largest role, ranking fifth on the team in points (7.9 per game), second in rebounds (5.3), and first in blocks (1.5).

For a better idea of how much turnover McGuff has dealt with, here is a graph of the percentage of scoring for each Big Ten team this season that has come from returning players and from new players:

Data from Her Hoop Stats for games through March 3.

83 percent of Ohio State’s scoring this season has come from newcomers, the highest in the conference by far. No other team’s newcomers have scored more than half of its total points. Nebraska, the No. 6 seed, was the next-closest team, with newcomers scoring 43 percent of its points. Notably, Maryland has also had newcomers score a relatively large share (35 percent) of its points, led by the coaches’ choice for freshman of the year, guard Taylor Mikesell.

The conference’s highest-scoring freshmen

Five Big Ten freshmen are averaging double-figure scoring:

Taylor Mikesell, Maryland – 13.9 PPG
Naz Hillmon, Michigan – 13.1 PPG
Imani Lewis, Wisconsin – 12.2 PPG
Nia Clouden, Michigan State – 12.1 PPG
Dorka Juhasz, Ohio State – 11.7 PPG

Maryland’s Shakira Austin joined Mikesell, Hillmon, Clouden, and Juhasz on the coaches’ All-Freshman Team. Austin is averaging only 8.7 points per game, but her 10.4 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game rank in the top five in the conference. Those defensive contributions are big reasons why Maryland won the regular-season conference title. Meanwhile, Wisconsin finished 13th out of 14 teams despite Imani Lewis’s 12.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Lewis’s consolation prize? An Honorable Mention All-Big Ten nod from the media.

Two other players named to the All-Freshman Team, Hillmon and Juhasz, were their teams’ leading scorers, while Mikesell was the Terps’ second-leading scorer. Each of those three was also named First or Second Team All-Big Ten by the coaches, the media, or both. Last but not least, Nia Clouden was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten by both the coaches and the media after averaging 12.1 points, 3.9 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game for Michigan State.

Something to watch on Day 1 of the Big Ten tournament: Wisconsin’s free throws have not been cash money

COLLEGE PARK, MD – FEBRUARY 15: Wisconsin coach Jonathan Tsipis during a Big 10 women’s basketball game on February 15, 2017 at Xfinity Center, in College Park, Maryland. Maryland defeated Wisconsin 89-40.(Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Wisconsin ranks 13th out of 14 Big Ten teams with a 4-14 conference record, and free-throw shooting is one reason why. The Badgers rank 342nd in the nation and last in the Big Ten in free throw shooting, making 58.4% of their attempts this season. Their 60.9% free throw shooting in Big Ten play trails the next-worst team, Northwestern, by 5.7 percentage points and the best-shooting team, Illinois, by nearly 15 points.

Individually, guard Suzanne Gilreath is Wisconsin’s best free-throw shooter (92.3 percent), but she has only attempted 13 free throws all season. None of the Badgers who average at least five minutes and one free throw attempt per game shoot above 63 percent from the foul line. If Wisconsin finds itself in a close game against 12th-seeded Penn State on Wednesday, the free-throw battle could be pivotal. Give Penn State the edge: the Nittany Lions only rank eighth in the Big Ten in free-throw shooting, but each of its top seven players shoot 70 percent or better from the line and two of them shoot better than 80 percent.

Something to watch on Day 2 of the Big Ten tournament: The conference’s most improved scorers

There are 112 players in the Big Ten this season who took the floor for their current team last season. 62 of those players have increased their scoring average this season, but the increases have been relatively modest. Only 23 players have increased their scoring by more than 2 points per game, and Minnesota teammates Annalese Lamke and Jasmine Brunson lead the way with increases of 6.9 and 5.5 points per game, respectively. Minnesota will play Indiana on Thursday in the second round of the Big Ten tournament – we’ll see if Lamke and Brunson can take their games up another notch in the postseason.

All data is from Her Hoop Stats for games through March 3.

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