Bracketology: Buffalo’s good and bad were on display in its win over Kent State
Cierra Dillard tries to shimmy Buffalo back to the Dance
Every week, High Post Hoops bracketologist Russell Steinberg highlights one game from one team in the NCAA Tournament conversation in order to help fans further understand the team’s tournament chances, potential placement, and how it might develop moving forward. Today’s team: the Buffalo Bulls, who held off Kent State, 75-66 on Saturday.
Buffalo Bulls
Record: 16-5 (8-2 MAC)
RPI: 24 SOS: 46
Best win: vs. South Dakota State (RPI 27) Worst Loss: at Dayton (RPI 104)
Buffalo was always going to have a tough resume to decipher. The Bulls play in a solid, but not-great league, the MAC, and had no fantastic wins out of their league. They went and scheduled games against Oregon and Stanford and you can’t fault them for losing those, but that means they don’t bring any real value other than an artificial strength of schedule boost.
All this means Buffalo would have to beat the other good teams in the MAC to prove it is worthy of an at-large bid. Its game against Kent State showed both why the Bulls could be a dangerous NCAA Tournament team and why they could miss the dance all together.
What we learned
Buffalo is best on offense when it is great on defense. The Bulls forced Kent State into eight turnovers in the first quarter alone, and four on the Golden Flash’s first five possessions (that other possession ended in a long, contested, missed three). As a result, Buffalo was able to score in transition and find quick, open looks from the perimeter.
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Remember Cierra Dillard from the NCAA Tournament last year? Yeah, she’s still really good and she’s still fun as hell to watch. Her first shot: A made three followed by her signature shimmy. Her second shot: A layup and stare-down of her defender.
Buffalo also excels in baseline out-of-bounds situations — a testament to Felisha Legette-Jack’s coaching chops and her team’s execution. Where the Bulls struggled, however, was in a slower-paced halfcourt offense while Kent State was able to set up and harass them, forcing ill-advised long-range shots.
And as the game wore on, particularly after Buffalo managed to go up by 20, Kent State just began outplaying the Bulls. The Golden Flash beat Buffalo to 50/50 balls, began grabbing rebounds they shouldn’t, and simply executed better offensively. The Buffalo lead dissipated to two possessions seemingly in the blink of an eye.
The good news for Buffalo is that it has a player like Dillard who can single-handedly put a stop to such nonsense. She had 31 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds. And inside, don’t forget about Summer Hemphill. Her 16 points and 12 rebounds were impressive enough, but at times she was able to out-class Kent State’s personnel.
Projection: Smack-dab in the middle of the bubble
A home game against Central Michigan and a game at Ohio might determine where Buffalo lands if it cannot win the MAC Tournament (which it definitely can do). Some committee members do put a lot of stock in the eye test, and I’m not entirely convinced Buffalo passes it. Then again, those standards are subjective. The key, as it often is with mid-major conferences, is how open the committee is to recognizing the quality of a win over a team like Ohio.