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This Week In the Big 12: 2019 could be a Baylor breakthrough

By Hayes Gardner

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 05: Baylor (15) Lauren Cox cutting the net after the win versus Texas during the Big 12 Women's Championship on March 05, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK. (Photo by Torrey Purvey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MARCH 05: Baylor (15) Lauren Cox cutting the net after the win versus Texas during the Big 12 Women's Championship on March 05, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK. (Photo by Torrey Purvey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Baylor doesn’t lose to bad teams.

And they don’t lose to mediocre teams, average teams, or even good teams. Over the last three regular seasons, the Bears have only lost to great — like top 15 in the country — teams.

Baylor also doesn’t lose at home: they’ve only done so once in the past five seasons.

I say that to say this: the likelihood of Baylor running the table the rest of the season gets higher by the day, particularly with their win at Texas on Monday.

The No. 14 Longhorns shot 53 percent from 3-point range at home on Monday night… and still lost to the Bears, who owned the glass for their biggest win since topping UConn on Jan. 3.

The Bears, No. 1 in the country in both the AP and coaches’ poll, have eight more regular season contests — five of which are at home. And although they won’t be able to sleepwalk through them, obviously, the Bears have a terrific chance to finish a perfect 18-0 in Big 12 play for the second-straight year.

Baylor’s toughest remaining games are at home against a Texas team it just defeated, and then on the road against two teams (Iowa State and West Virginia) that it beat by at least 15 points in their first matchup.

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It seems almost probable that Baylor will run the table. If they can do that, and then win the Big 12 tournament, it will be nearly impossible to argue that they don’t deserve the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But does that matter that much? Being a one-seed vs. a two-seed? In most years, yes, it does matter. And this year? Oh, it most definitely matters.

By my estimation, the top tier of NCAA basketball consists of six clear teams: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Notre Dame, UConn and Mississippi State.

The AP poll and coaches’ poll agree on these six, before differentiating. Most other metrics also include these six teams among the nation’s most elite. These scary six are the teams I would be most afraid of come March. And the only way to avoid playing one of those teams before the Final Four? Be one of the top-two overall seeds in the tourney.

If Baylor can seal the No. 1 overall seed, the toughest team they will face on their path to the Final Four are foes like an Oregon State, a Stanford, an N.C. State. And while Oregon State has defeated Baylor is the tournament in recent years, and although Stanford already beat Baylor this year (albeit in Stanford), if I was the Bears, I would much prefer to face one of those second-tier teams than I would, say, a team like Notre Dame or Mississippi State.

Recently, Baylor has dominated the Big 12 (winning the conference year in and year out) and the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (reaching the Sweet Sixteen each year since 2009). But for all their dominance, they’ve run into problems in the second weekend: Baylor last made the Final Four in 2012.

Could this be the year that Baylor breaks through and returns to the biggest stage in women’s college basketball? If they can run the table, it would set up nicely.

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