Rocky times on Rocky Top: Should Holly Warlick stay or go?

Breaking down the struggles in Knoxville.

Last weekend, rumors spread that Tennessee head coach Holly Warlick might be fired after the team’s fourth straight loss. A Tennessee spokesperson denied the rumors, but the Lady Vols lost again on Monday to Arkansas, extending the streak to five games ahead of a daunting matchup against AP No. 1 Notre Dame on Thursday.

Despite having been a Lady Vol basketball player herself, Warlick has been on the hot seat before at Tennessee, and opinions on her tenure as head coach are clearly split. On the one hand, her record through six full seasons is a sparkling 153-54, eleventh-best among Power 5 coaches in that span. On the other hand, the team has been inconsistent rather than dominant in the past few years, and its current 1-5 record in SEC play is simply not good enough for a program accustomed to flirting more with national championships than the SEC basement. Here are some of the numbers that Tennessee athletic director Phillip Fulmer might consider as he weighs Warlick’s future.

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The case for keeping Warlick

Let’s face it: life was grand for Lady Vols fans when Warlick was an assistant under the legendary Pat Summitt. Summitt compiled an 1,098-208 record, eight national championships, and 18 Final Four appearances in 38 seasons; no one could reasonably expect Warlick to match those numbers.

But Warlick has done pretty darn well in her own right. Counting this season, her head coaching record  is 165-60, and her teams have nearly always been ranked in the top 25. Her 108 wins in her first four seasons rank seventh all-time, and she has led her team to three Elite Eights in six seasons, most recently in 2016.

Tennessee has also played—and beaten—several of the top teams in the country in the past four seasons. The Lady Vols had the toughest schedule in the country in 2015-16 (as measured by opponents’ win percentage and average scoring margin) and have had a top-30 schedule in every season since. They have beaten Texas in back-to-back seasons, including a road win this season. From 2015-16 through 2017-18, the Lady Vols registered nine wins over top-10 teams (as measured by Her Hoop Stats rating, which ranks every team in the country), four of which were on the road.

Even this season, many of Tennessee’s statistics actually compare favorably to previous seasons. According to Her Hoop Stats, Tennessee ranks among the top ten percent of teams nationally in points per game (78.4) this season, a dramatic increase from the 2015-16 Elite Eight team’s 65.6 points per game. The Lady Vols have turned up their pace of play, averaging seven more possessions per 40 minutes this season than in 2015-16. At the same time, they’ve increased their offensive efficiency from 0.95 points per scoring attempt (PPSA) in 2015-16 to 1.01 PPSA this season. And while they have been roundly criticized for their turnovers in the past two seasons, those teams’ turnover rates (17.8% this season, 18.2% last season) are actually lower than the Elite Eight team’s 18.8% turnover rate.

This season, Tennessee has particularly excelled on the glass, ranking fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding rate and eighth in total rebounding rate. Over the past four seasons, the Lady Vols have consistently been a good defensive rebounding team, but they are averaging more than five more offensive rebounds per game this season than in 2016-17.

The case for firing Warlick

Paradoxically, although Tennessee has had success against its toughest national competition, the team has struggled with consistency and been susceptible to upsets in SEC play over the past four seasons. This season’s loss to Her Hoop Stats No. 107 Alabama was the team’s fourth loss to an SEC opponent ranked 100th or worse by HHS in the past four seasons. The Lady Vols currently sit in 13th place in the 14-team SEC. That’s a far cry from Pat Summitt’s days: between 1985-86 and 2011-12, her teams finished first in the SEC 14 times, second 7 times, and never worse than fifth.

Looking at where the Lady Vols have ranked among SEC teams in various categories is perhaps the clearest indication of a drop-off. In Holly Warlick’s first three seasons (2012-13 through 2014-15), the Lady Vols won the SEC twice and finished second once; since then, the best they have managed is fourth place. They have also been average or worse in several statistical categories in conference play over the past four seasons:

This chart shows that there are gaps between Tennessee and the conference’s best in nearly every area on the floor. (Rebounding is the major exception; the Lady Vols lead the conference in rebounds per game.) Moreover, this is not a one-year blip like Summitt had in 2008-09, going 9-5 in SEC play in her team’s first year without two-time Wooden Award winner Candace Parker. In most of these categories, the Lady Vols have not been top-three in the SEC in the past four seasons.

Looking ahead

Tennessee doesn’t need to reclaim the exact same identity it had under Summitt. But the Rocky Top faithful do want their team to make the SEC its personal stomping ground again, and that will likely require the Lady Vols to reestablish who they are as a team and a program post-Summitt. It’s hard to say whether firing Warlick would help the team get needed distance from the past or erase their best hope of reaching those heights in the future. What Holly Warlick has done as head coach has been terrific, and it would earn her the loyalty of most fan bases nationwide. Ironically, it might not be good enough for the one fan base that she helped build as a player and coach.

(All statistics are courtesy of Her Hoop Stats unless otherwise specified and represent games through January 22.)