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Bracketology breakdown: Arkansas on wrong side of the bubble, but fun spoiler

By Russell Steinberg

NASHVILLE, TN - MARCH 01: Arkansas Lady Razorbacks head coach Mike Neighbors calls out the play against the Texas A&M Aggies during the first period between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas A&M Aggies in a SEC Women's Tournament game on March 1, 2018, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN - MARCH 01: Arkansas Lady Razorbacks head coach Mike Neighbors calls out the play against the Texas A&M Aggies during the first period between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas A&M Aggies in a SEC Women's Tournament game on March 1, 2018, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Every week, High Post Hoop’s bracketologist Russell Steinberg will highlight one game from one team in the NCAA Tournament conversation. It will give fans a chance to further understand the team’s tournament chances, potential placement, and how that team might develop moving forward. Today’s team: the Arkansas Razorbacks, who lost to Mississippi State, 93-69 on Thursday.

Arkansas Razorbacks:
Record: 11-4 (0-1 SEC)
RPI: 70 SOS: 111
Best win: vs. Nebraska (RPI 73) Worst loss: vs. Pittsburgh (RPI 83)

Arkansas found itself just shy of the Next Four Out this week — indicative of a team with a solid record but nothing eye-popping on the resume. The good news for the Razorbacks is that they play in the SEC, which currently has eight teams projected in the field, so the opportunities to change that are there. It would not have been realistic to expect Arkansas to get that first big win against Mississippi State on Thursday, as the Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the country. But the game did serve as a good look at how the Razorbacks stack up against tournament-caliber competition.

What we learned:

Arkansas’s a solid team and it’s not going to back down against anyone. The Razorbacks came out of the gate with confidence, playing like they could compete with the best teams in the country. Unfortunately, they don’t have the personnel to do so. While Arkansas did an okay job denying Teaira McCowan the ball at the start, once she actually caught it, there was nothing the Razorbacks could do. The result? 16 points on 7-11 shooting with 22 rebounds for McCowan. The Bulldogs dominated on the glass, 57-31, and in the paint, outscoring Arkansas 62-40.

But Arkansas was always going to struggle against much bigger teams. The Razorbacks start four guards and succeed while pushing the tempo. The more concerning part was how they let Jordan Danberry score with ease. When not hitting McCowan inside, the Bulldogs were able to move the ball quickly and effectively, creating good looks for Danberry, who had a game-high 26 points.

Here’s the good news: Arkansas looked really good for stretches offensively, particularly with Chelsea Dungee controlling the ball and doing whatever she wanted with it. Moving forward, when the Razorbacks are in a close game in the final moments, Dungee can take it upon herself to score while her teammates clear the way. Alexis Tolefree had her moments as well, and if she can shoot consistently, Arkansas could have another serious offensive threat.

Projection: A strong NIT team

Arkansas is good enough to stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation for a while and should be able to beat up on the lower half of the SEC. Remember: The Razorbacks went 3-13 in the SEC last year, so even an NIT bid would be a huge improvement. And they’re still young. Malica Monk is the only regular contributor expected to graduate this year, making the future for Mike Neighbors’ crew remarkably bright.

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