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The Money Line: women’s basketball odds, spreads, and predictions

By Blake DuDonis

SOUTH BEND, IN - DECEMBER 02: Crystal Dangerfield #5 of the Connecticut Huskies dribbles the ball against Marina Mabrey #3 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purcell Pavilion on December 2, 2018 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
SOUTH BEND, IN - DECEMBER 02: Crystal Dangerfield #5 of the Connecticut Huskies dribbles the ball against Marina Mabrey #3 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purcell Pavilion on December 2, 2018 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) /
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UNCASVILLE, CT – NOVEMBER 17: UConn Huskies forward Napheesa Collier (24) shoots over Vanderbilt Commodores guard LeaLea Carter (30) during a women’s college basketball game between UConn Huskies and Vanderbilt Commodores on November 17, 2018, at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT – NOVEMBER 17: UConn Huskies forward Napheesa Collier (24) shoots over Vanderbilt Commodores guard LeaLea Carter (30) during a women’s college basketball game between UConn Huskies and Vanderbilt Commodores on November 17, 2018, at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

#1 UConn -3.5 at #8 Baylor
Over/under: 143.5

For those who aren’t as dialed in with spreads and betting lines, being the home team is usually viewed as about a 3 point advantage. With that being known, Vegas is essentially telling you that on a neutral court, they think UConn would beat Baylor by around 6 or 7 points. This is the exact same line from a few weeks again when UConn visited Notre Dame, a line many (myself included) were surprised by. We all know how that game went, but that game and this one certainly isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison.

Baylor is what Baylor usually is: a big team with outrageous shooting percentage numbers due to their ability to pound the ball into the paint. I won’t even list everything they are Top 10 in because it would take too long, but you can check out Her Hoops Stats if you’re interested. What they do lack in though is 3-point shooting and defending the 3-point shot. Baylor ranks among the very worst teams in 3’s taken and made, and allow other teams to score an absurd 53% of their points from behind the arc, the worst mark in the country. It’s one thing to try and force teams to beat you from outside, but Baylor hasn’t done a good enough job forcing contested shots from range. That has to change against a UConn team that shoots 39% from deep.

On the flip side, UConn remains excellent pretty much across the board as well, but there are some concerns. Baylor is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and has the size that the Huskies (and most teams) simply cannot match up to. That is especially troubling tonight as UConn only forces 14 turnovers a game, 280th in the country. If you can’t rebound and you can’t create extra possessions by turning a team over, you have to shoot a high percentage or you’re done.

I can honestly say that no outcome in this game would shock me, but I seeing this one being close throughout. I’ve watched both teams play a lot and I just feel that while they match up pretty evenly as far as talent goes, I think UConn has proven to be able to adjust better than Baylor. Give me the Huskies -3.5 and the over.

NASHVILLE, TN – MARCH 01: Auburn Tigers guard Janiah McKay (33) shots the ball on a fast break against the Tennessee Lady Volunteers during the first period between the Auburn Tigers and the Tennessee Lady Volunteers in a SEC Women’s Tournament game on March 1, 2018, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN – MARCH 01: Auburn Tigers guard Janiah McKay (33) shots the ball on a fast break against the Tennessee Lady Volunteers during the first period between the Auburn Tigers and the Tennessee Lady Volunteers in a SEC Women’s Tournament game on March 1, 2018, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

#10 Tennessee -3.5 at Auburn
Over/under: 153.5

One of the sneaky best opening games in any conference this season, Auburn and Tennessee square off in an important SEC matchup that could help determine a lot down the road. The Tigers have quietly gotten off to a 12-1 start with their lone loss coming by three points to Top 25 member Iowa State, a game played in rowdy Ames, Iowa. The pressing, active defense of Auburn has always been their calling card, but so far this season, their offense has been up to snuff too.

Forcing over 21 turnovers a game was expected by the Tigers, but their shooting percentages have been a pleasant surprise. 34th in the NCAA in field goal percentage, Auburn has used their defense to create their offense in a way that has to be worrisome for their opponents. Couple that with their respectable three-point shooting of 34%, plus being one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country (thanks in large part to Unique Thompson’s 4.2 ORPG, 13th in the country) and you’ve got a Tigers team that will be tough out. Against a Lady Vols team that struggles taking care of the ball, that could equal an upset.

I’ve written here about Tennessee before and not much has changed. They have the talent, they rebound the ball really well, they are too iso-centric on offense, and they could beat (or lose) to anyone on any given night. All that said, they are 11-1 with their only loss coming to Stanford, so it’s not as if the sky is falling in Knoxville.

Tennessee has the better roster, but Auburn really creates some problems for them. Last season the Tigers lost to the Lady Vols by 11 at Tennessee and by 3 in the SEC tournament. They are a better team than a season ago and I like their chances tonight. Give me Auburn +3.5 and the over.

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