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The Money Line: spreads, odds, and predictions for today

By Blake DuDonis

LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 15: Guests attend a viewing party for the NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament inside the 25,000-square-foot Race & Sports SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino which features 4,488-square-feet of HD video screens on March 15, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 15: Guests attend a viewing party for the NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament inside the 25,000-square-foot Race & Sports SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino which features 4,488-square-feet of HD video screens on March 15, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /
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HONOLULU, HI – NOVEMBER 24: Alanna Smith #11 of the Stanford Cardinal celebrates a shot during a Rainbow Wahine Showdown women’s college basketball game against the American University Eagles at the Stan Sheriff Center on November 24, 2018 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
HONOLULU, HI – NOVEMBER 24: Alanna Smith #11 of the Stanford Cardinal celebrates a shot during a Rainbow Wahine Showdown women’s college basketball game against the American University Eagles at the Stan Sheriff Center on November 24, 2018 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

#8 Stanford -3.5 at #9 Tennessee 
Over/under: 146.5

We all know the narrative around Tennessee: they are sloppy, undisciplined, inconsistent on offense, etc. Maybe those things are true or maybe they aren’t, but the numbers don’t lie. One of the best rebounding teams in the country on both sides with an offensive rebounding percentage of 43.8% (8th in NCAA) and a defensive rebounding percentage of 73.3% (25th), the Lady Vols are going to be in every game if they keep that up. They need to take better care of the ball and become better passers though, as 17 turnovers a game is far too many, and an assisted shot rate of 47.3% is 314th in the country. Evina Westbrook, Rennia Davis and Meme Jackson play the role of the Big 3, and while they all are shooting right at or above 50%, they are also responsible for the lion’s share of those turnovers.

If Stanford wants to win their second straight game against a Top 10 team, a replica of their performance against Baylor would be a good place to start. While they were outrebounded by 13, the Cardinal used Baylor’s size against them offensively, spreading it out and knocking in 13 three’s at a 60% clip. Opponents are shooting 31.5% from three against Tennessee, a middle-of-the-road number, so while counting on shooting it as well as they did against the Lady Bears may be misguided, it isn’t the worst idea to let them fly early and see what happens.

They proved me right last time so I’m riding with them again; give me Stanford and give me the under.

COLUMBUS, OH – APRIL 01: Mississippi State Lady Bulldogs center Teaira McCowan (15) creates space as Notre Dame Fighting Irish forward Kristina Nelson (21) defends in the National Championship game between the Mississippi State Lady Bulldogs and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on April 1, 2018 at Nationwide Arena. Notre Dame won 61-58. (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH – APRIL 01: Mississippi State Lady Bulldogs center Teaira McCowan (15) creates space as Notre Dame Fighting Irish forward Kristina Nelson (21) defends in the National Championship game between the Mississippi State Lady Bulldogs and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on April 1, 2018 at Nationwide Arena. Notre Dame won 61-58. (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

#4 Mississippi State -3.5 at #7 Oregon 
Over/under: 153.5

In her two career games against Mississippi State, Sabrina Ionescu has averaged 14.5 ppg, 3 rpg, 4.5 apg and 5 tpg on 40.7% shooting. Yeah, that Bulldogs pressure defense is for real. Perhaps the only team that has been able to make the superstar Ionescu look uncomfortable more than once, State is a team who has a ton to prove tonight. They’ve been able to withstand the loss of four starters from last year’s squad, and while they’ve played a lot of cupcakes, they decimated Texas at home and held on to beat a really good Marquette team as well. Their defense is the focal point yet again this season and they are amongst the best in the country in most major categories. On the other side of the court, the Bulldogs are shooting 39% from three (16th in NCAA), scoring 1.01 points per play (3rd), and their offensive rebounding percentage is 51.2%, a number that makes you double check because it can’t possibly be correct. Potential #1 WNBA draft pick Teaira McCowan has continued to dominate, and the addition of Anriel Howard is already paying dividends. The Dawgs are good.

Let’s not let all of that make us forget that Oregon is pretty damn good themselves. The Ducks bounced back from the tough loss at Michigan State with a gutsy win at South Dakota State, a place that has given nearly every visitor (Power 5 schools included) issues for many years. With six full days to prepare, you know they will be ready. Oregon is arguably the best offensive team in the country, ranking first in effective field goal percentage, points per play, and points per scoring attempt, and they are in the 95 percentile in a lot of other areas. One thing they don’t do is rebound the ball offensively and that is the exact reason I’m concerned in this one. With the frontcourt of McCowan and Howard to deal with, the offensive boards will be few and far between for the Ducks, so their shot selection (and making) will be huge.

With the pressure D so high from State, I just don’t know how Oregon will handle it. Perhaps the third time is the charm, but I’m riding with the Bulldogs and the over tonight.

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