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2018-19 SEC preview: Will Mississippi State or South Carolina prevail?

By Blake DuDonis

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NASHVILLE, TN – MARCH 01: Auburn Tigers guard Janiah McKay (33) shots the ball on a fast break against the Tennessee Lady Volunteers during the first period between the Auburn Tigers and the Tennessee Lady Volunteers in a SEC Women’s Tournament game on March 1, 2018, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN – MARCH 01: Auburn Tigers guard Janiah McKay (33) shots the ball on a fast break against the Tennessee Lady Volunteers during the first period between the Auburn Tigers and the Tennessee Lady Volunteers in a SEC Women’s Tournament game on March 1, 2018, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Auburn Tigers
Last season: 14-15 (5-11, 10th) 
Predicted finish this season: 8th

Key returners (last season’s stats)
G- Janiah McKay, 5’6, SR- 16.6 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.5 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 40.1% FG, 24.6% 3pt, 32.3 MPG
G- Daisa Alexander, 5’8, JR- 14.2 PPG, 2.8 SPG, 33.6% 3pt, 25.7 MPG, SEC All-Defensive selection
F- Unique Thompson, 6’3, SO- 11.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 48.3% FG, 30 MPG, SEC All-Freshman selection

Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
F- Jazmine Jones, 6’2- 5.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 53 steals, 26.6 MPG (graduated)

Newcomers
G- Robyn Benton, 5’9, (Conyers, GA), FR- Ranked #17 in 2018 class, #5 shooting guard
G- Brook Moore, 5’7, (McDonough, GA), FR- Ranked #39 in 2018 class, #9 point guard
F/G- Erin Howard, 6’1, (Madison, WI), FR- Ranked #107 in 2018 class, #24 power forward
F, Natalie Kelly, 6’2, (Albany, LA), FR
 G, Crystal Primm, 5’11, (Duke/ West Palm Beach, FL), R-JR-Ranked #43 in 2015 class, #10 shooting guard. Averaged 2.5 PPG and 2.4 RPG at Duke
#13 ranked class in the country

Head Coach- Terri Williams-Flournoy, 7th season
There are plenty of head coaches and teams across the country that you aren’t sure what their identity or true style of play is. That certainly isn’t the case for Coach Flo and Auburn. A team full of athletic specimens, the Tigers want to press you, speed you up and turn the ball over. They’ve been successful at that, ranking in the upper 96 percentile in steal rate and turnovers forced each of the last five seasons. While her team’s offensive shooting percentage leaves plenty to be desired (their three-point percentage and true shooting percentage were among the worst in the country last season) they make up for it by getting a ton of transition points and crashing the offensive boards hard. While Williams-Flournoy has had some success (like taking the Tigers to back-to-back NCAA tournaments for the first time in seven years), she has had her struggles as well (the team has yet to post a winning SEC record during her tenure).

Much like their SEC counterpart Vanderbilt, who has gotten it done recruiting despite the record not being great, Williams-Flournoy and her staff have done the same. The #13 class in the country contains several players who can help right away. If she can get her offense even in the same ballpark as her defense, Coach Flo might have a squad this season.

Key non-conference games
Dec. 2– v. Oklahoma
Dec. 20- UNC (Myrtle Beach, S.C.)
Dec. 22- at Elon

Outlook
Auburn returns more of their core from last season than almost any other team in the conference. The top three scorers are back led by Janiah McKay, a player I could see having a breakout season. The 13.2 SPG and 22.9 turnovers forced a game are big-time stats, but there is no mystery that the Tiger’s offense is suspect at best. Their 118 made threes ranked ahead of just LSU and were a distant 33 made threes behind the next closest team. They also were dead last in defensive rebounding, hauling down just 19.1 per game. That is to be expected when a team is pressing, especially out of a zone set like Auburn often does. Even if it makes sense why it’s happening, they have to fix that.

Perhaps I’m expecting too much of an improvement on offense, and I’ll admit that this part of the conference is really difficult for me to predict. You know the defense will be doing its usual thing, and sophomore post Unique Thompson is a special talent. If she can make a leap after her impressive freshman campaign, I can see the Tigers being a much better team.

Best Case Scenario-  The full court press defense finally finds an offense who can make opponents pay, thanks in large part to Janiah McKay and Unique Thompson who both make All-SEC teams. Auburn ties for 6th, wins an SEC tournament game and go dancing for the third time in four seasons.

Worst Case Scenario- Oh the offense. Nothing changes, the three still isn’t there and while they continue to make opponents uncomfortable, it doesn’t matter in the end. The team finishes in 11th place and misses the tournament yet again.

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