2018-19 SEC preview: Will Mississippi State or South Carolina prevail?
Arkansas Razorbacks
Last season: 13-18 (3-13, T-11th)
Predicted finish this season: 9th
Key returners (last season’s stats)
G- Malicia Monk, 5’5, SR- 15.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.6 SPG, 35% FG, 30.2% 3pt, 34.2 MPG
PG- Jailyn Mason, 5’9, SR- 11 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, 40.4% FG, 36.2% 3pt, 33.3 MPG
F/C- Kiara Williams, 6’1, JR- 8.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 52.2% FG, 19.4 MPG
Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
G- Devin Cosper, 5’10- 14.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 34.9% FG, 28.4% 3pt, 31.2 MPG (graduated)
Newcomers
G- Rokia Doumbia, 5’9, (Bradenton, FL/ Mali, Africa), FR- Ranked #97 in 2018 class, #28 shooting guard
PG- Alexis Tolefree, 5’8, (Jones County JC/ Conway, AR), JR- Ranked #5 in 2018 JUCO class, #3 point guard
G- A’Tyanna Gaulden, 5’7, (Florida State/ Ocilla, GA), R-SO- Ranked #23 in 2016 class, #6 point guard. Saw limited action at Florida State.
G- Chelsea Dungee, 5’11, (Oklahoma/ Sapulpa, OK), R-SO- Ranked #61 in 2016 class, #15 shooting guard. Averaged 7.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG at Oklahoma. Big 12 All-Freshman selection.
Head Coach- Mike Neighbors, 2nd season
It’s safe to say that the new man in town wasted no time installing his new high-octane offense in Fayetteville. Mike Neighbors, the Arkansas native who coached the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer in Kelsey Plum at Washington, took over a program who was needing some life put back into it. While the wins didn’t come in bunches, I have a feeling they will soon. After ranking 243rd in possessions per 40 minutes the season prior to Neighbors return, the team jumped all the way to 53rd according to HerHoopStats. Admittedly, the team was focused more on getting shots up than anything, so that means not nearly as many went in that are needed to be successful. That said, nearly the entire roster is back for year 2 and I imagine they will be much more settled. Neighbors is a good ole boy who has never met a stranger and is just as likely to be found plucking a guitar as he is watching film. That balance has Hogs fans excited about the future of the program.
Key non-conference games
Nov. 18- v. Arizona State
Dec. 2– at Iowa
Dec. 18- v. Nebraska
Outlook
“Let it fly!” I’m not sure if that was actually the motto of the 2017-18 Arkansas Razorbacks, but it sure could have been. They were 25th in the NCAA in three-pointers taken and tops in field goals attempted per game (67). Couple that with averaging just 11.5 turnovers per game (T-8th in the NCAA) and you had a team that at least gave themselves an opportunity. Now, the shots have to start falling if they want to win consistently; a true shooting percentage of 45.1 (300th in the NCAA) and an effective field goal percentage of 42.1% (286th) aren’t good enough. And if you’re going to miss that many shots, your offensive rebounding rate needs to be up there and their’s wasn’t; 28.9% which ranked 291st.
All that said, I think in an honest moment, Neighbors would tell you that he knew last season was one to teach his system and not worry about results. Now that they have, I expected the numbers to go up. Defensively, Arkansas wasn’t nearly as poor as the raw numbers show, but their lack of size really hurt them in the rebounding department (Arkansas was among the worst teams in terms of giving up rebounds to opponents). The more shots go in, however, the fewer rebounds there are to be had and the more time their defense can be set up. It could be that I’m a season early on this projection, but I think the Razorbacks play a unique enough style that it will give teams trouble, especially now that they know what they are doing.
Best Case Scenario- The shots keep going up at insane rates but this season they are going in. Monk makes All-SEC First Team, Rokia Dombia competes for Freshman of the Year and Arkansas finishes in 7th place, putting themselves in a position to make the SEC semi-finals and going to the Big Dance
Worst Case Scenario- Yep, I’m a year early on my projection. The Hogs keep shooting and while their percentages go up, their roster’s height not doing the same becomes their downfall. Like a year ago, they battle for a lower seed, hoping to get a good matchup in the SEC tournament. They don’t and are sent home early.