2018-19 SEC preview: Will Mississippi State or South Carolina prevail?
LSU Tigers
Last season: 19-10 (11-5, T-4th)
Predicted finish this season: 10th
Key returners (last season’s stats)
F- Ayana Mitchell, 6’2, JR- 11 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 55.6% FG, 27.3 MPG
G- Faustine Aifuwa, 6’5, SO- 5.1 PPG, 5 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 43.8% FG, 18 MPG
Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
G- Chloe Jackson, 5’9- 18.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 26 made 3pt, 43.6% FG, 37 MPG, Second Team All-SEC selection (grad transfer-Baylor)
G- Raigyne Louis, 5’10- 16.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 31.3% 3pt, First Team All-SEC, All-Defensive selection (graduated)
Newcomers
F- Monet Jones, 6’2, (Missouri City, TX), FR- Ranked #123 in 2018 class, #25 power forward
G- Karli Seay, 5’8, (Western Nebraska CC/ Flossmor, IL), SO- Ranked #13 in 2018 JUCO class, #2 shooting guard
G/F- Mercedes Brooks, 6’0, (Trinity Valley CC/ Wichita Falls, TX), JR- Ranked #16 in 2018 JUCO class, #5 shooting guard
G- LaToya Ashman, 5’10, (Florida SouthWestern State College/ Wellington, FL), JR- Ranked #85 in 2018 JUCO class, #21 shooting guard
G- Rakell Spencer, 5’11, (Texas A&M/ New Orleans, LA), SO- Ranked #156 in 2016 class, #40 shooting guard. Played limited minutes at Texas A&M
Head Coach- Nikki Fargas, 8th season
What an interesting seven seasons it’s been for Nikki Fargas in Baton Rouge. A big name hire in 2011, Fargas led the Tigers to the Sweet Sixteen in her second and third seasons and appeared to have the program set to take a leap forward. In the four seasons since, however, the team has made the tournament in three of them but each time was bounced in the first round. Last season the team exceed expectations set by many, earning the 4-seed in the SEC tournament but despite the double-bye was eliminated in their first game. Her career record of 199-114 is solid, but her SEC record of 59-53 does have some Tiger fans wanting a touch more. Fargas will have a tall task replacing two All-SEC performers that departed, but for a coach who has only missed the NCAA tournament two out of her 10 seasons as a head coach, Fargas will surely meet the challenge head-on.
Key non-conference games
Nov. 18- at Florida State
Dec. 15– at Rutgers
Dec. 30- v. South Florida
Outlook
Gone are Chloe Jackson and Raigyne Louis, the two-headed guard monster that gave opposing teams headaches. Jackson led the team in scoring and made three-pointers while Louis, the 2016-17 SEC Defensive Player of the Year, picked pockets then used her athleticism to glide in for finishes at the rim. So, now what? That is the conundrum that the Tigers find themselves in. On one hand, Ayana Mitchell and Faustine Aifuwa are back and should be solid. On the other, who else can they count on for sure? In a time that offense nationwide is trending towards making three’s, LSU ranked 348 out of 349 teams in three-point rate. As a team, they only made 86 of them last season and 43 of them left with Jackson and Louis.
Just like they have in the past, LSU will look to rely on steals and second chances to create easy points. Their steal rate of 13.9% was Top 50 in the country, as was their offensive rebounding rate of 37.3%. With plenty of talent on the roster, including Raven Farley, Yasmine Bidikuindila and Khayla Pointer (a player I see a lot of Raigyne Louis in), the team could certainly exceed expectations again. I’m just not sure where their points are going to come from.
Best Case Scenario- The five players mentioned in the previous section make Tiger fans quickly forget about Jackson and Louis. The team finishes in 6th, makes the NCAA tournament again and advances past the first round.
Worst Case Scenario- It’s not due to a lack of trying, but Jackson and Louis prove impossible to replace. The team has some notable wins but struggle to break 60 points consistently. They finish in 11th and miss the postseason for just the second time under Fargas.