Natasha Howard holds the keys to a Storm run to the Finals
By Ben Dull
Why Natasha Howard could make all the difference for the Seattle Storm in these WNBA playoffs, starting with Game 1 of their semifinal series against the Phoenix Mercury.
Natasha Howard has already helped the Seattle Storm take a big step forward in the right direction.
Seattle returned all five starters from last year’s team. By the second game of the season, Howard had entered the starting lineup in place of Crystal Langhorne. The Storm took off this season, winning a league-high 26 games in the regular season after back-to-back sub-.500 seasons and first round playoff exits.
Howard has been right at the core of what the Storm have been able to do to rank in the top three in both offense and defense. She and MVP-favorite Breanna Stewart fly all over the court on defense, stepping out to guard on the perimeter, help out at the rim, body up in the post and gobble up defensive rebounds.
Sue Bird has another pick and roll partner to work with to carve up opposing defenses — Howard scored 1.367 points per possession as a roller this season according to Synergy Sports. Among players that have finished at least 20 possessions as a roller, that mark trails only Stewart, who has scored 1.419 points per possession as a roller.
Howard’s long arms and explosiveness to get to the rim and finish in traffic have been a tremendous asset to Jewell Loyd as well. The 2018 All-Star guard may be known most for her ability to hit tough shots off the dribble, but like Bird, Loyd operates most often offensively as a pick and roll ball handler.
On the other side of the ball, Howard has been another safety net for Bird, Loyd and wing stopper Alysha Clark. Per WNBA.com, the Storm allowed just 98.8 points per 100 possessions this season after finishing ninth in defensive rating in 2017 (104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions). Per Basketball-Reference, Howard tied for third in defensive win shares with 2.3 and ranked third in Jacob Goldstein’s defensive player impact plus minus.
Dan Hughes, who took over as Storm head coach during the offseason, has spoken about his priority to empower his players. Stewart has clearly reached a new level. Bird posted a career-high in assists per game. Loyd has improved as a defender while continuing to show that she can be a player that completely takes games over with her dynamic scoring ability. Clark is their 3-and-D player, the glue player that does a little bit of everything to balance things out.
That starting group is why Seattle’s average margin of victory was nearly identical against the seven other playoff teams in the regular season (11.9 in 15 wins) in comparison to their wins against the four non-playoff teams (12.5 in 11 wins). The Storm starting five outscored its opponents by 18.9 points per 100 possessions in 533 minutes together this season according to Positive Residual.
They’ll be put to the test Sunday as Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and DeWanna Bonner lead the Phoenix Mercury into Seattle to kick off their best-of-five semifinal series.
As teams tighten their rotations in the postseason, the first question is whether or not the Storm starting unit will continue to be as effective when tasked with playing more minutes. Their bench largely consists of specialists. Courtney Paris is a physical rebounding presence that is best served playing close to the basket. Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and Sami Whitcomb are spot up shooters, though Mosqueda-Lewis has been able to turn things up a notch when she gets hot. Rookie point guard Jordin Canada is shooting just 35.7 percent from the field this season — those shooting struggles may continue if Phoenix backs off and dares her to beat them with her jumper. And Langhorne, in addition to being undersized, isn’t as versatile offensively as Howard to put the same amount of pressure on the Mercury defense when she doesn’t have the ball.
The Mercury starters are quite used to the higher minutes load by now. Taurasi logged 33+ minutes 15 times in the regular season. Bonner led the league in total regular season minutes played, and Griner wasn’t far behind.
Howard played 33+ minutes just four times. The Storm didn’t always need it, as they won 10 games by 15 points or more. But foul trouble became an issue at times. Howard averaged 5.2 fouls per 36 minutes — that mark is in line with the first four years of her career, when she was tasked with much smaller roles in both Indiana and Minnesota. (Howard started 15 games as a rookie with the Fever, then drew just three starts since.)
Phoenix sliding DeWanna Bonner to the four spot has taken away potential ‘hiding spots’ that would allow Howard or Stewart to look to help more freely. Camille Little, Devereaux Peters and Angel Robinson will be counted on to play some minutes for the Mercury, but they’re a team that now requires opponents to account for 30+ minutes of Griner and Bonner.
There’s an easy case to be made that Griner was the best post scorer in the league this season, more efficient on a higher volume than Elena Delle Donne, Sylvia Fowles, Tina Charles and A’ja Wilson. Per Synergy, Liz Cambage scored 1.152 points per possession to Griner’s 1.135, though Griner did so on 62 more possessions.
Though Bonner has the third-highest usage rate on her own team, she demands constant attention well beyond the 3-point line. Bonner can beat closeouts and take on some playmaking duties in her own right. Stewart and Howard will be stretched thin, forced to guard out in space and bang down in the paint, meaning the margin for error will be slim for both to stay on the court together for as many minutes as possible.
That sentiment cuts both ways, though. Howard is capable of putting plenty of pressure on the Mercury defense. She shot 32.7 percent on threes this season and didn’t get up all that many. Her 3-point attempt rate of 16.3 is about in line with that of Charles, Angel McCoughtry and Cappie Pondexter. But the percentages and volume won’t matter if Phoenix’s players believe that she’s a threat to take and make them. That alone will open the door to more opportunities for the Storm to eat at the rim.
Howard has been very efficient when closer to the basket, shooting 59 percent overall on two-pointers in 2018. Per Swanny’s Stats, Howard shot 67.8 percent inside five feet and 53.7 percent from 6-to-15 feet. She also collected 11.1 percent of available offensive rebounds, a figure that put her in elite company among the likes of Fowles, Chiney Ogwumike and Jonquel Jones.
When Taurasi and Bonner do attack the basket, they’ll have to take note of where Howard is on the floor. She and Griner led the league in block rate, swatting six percent of their opponent’s two-point field goal attempts this season.
The Storm won two of three against the Mercury in the regular season. The teams played twice in the first week of the season then again on July 31. Phoenix made its lineup change the following day against the Las Vegas Aces. Sunday’s Game 1 will be the first time Seattle seen the lineup change up close. Per Positive Residual, in 181 regular season and playoff minutes, that Mercury starting unit has been an offensive juggernaut, scoring a whopping 135 points per 100 possessions.
The task at hand for Seattle isn’t an easy one. But with Howard playing big minutes at the level she’s been at all season alongside their core pieces, they ought to feel pretty good about their chances.