Drop Off: 22 (not so) bold predictions for the 2018 WNBA season

We’re eight games and three days into the season. Enjoy this rare chance to catch your breath. All 12 teams are off on Monday.

Tuesday will feature two games at 7 PM ET. The Los Angeles Sparks will travel from Minnesota to Indiana to take on the Fever, and the Las Vegas Aces will head to Washington to battle the Mystics.

22 (not so) bold predictions for the WNBA’s 22nd season

1. Renee Montgomery and Brittney Sykes will combine to hit 130 three-pointers

Neither player made 40 last season. Montgomery’s career high in makes (66) was set in 2010 with Connecticut.

2. Sky will rank in the top-four in offensive efficiency

(This comes with one obvious condition: The clock doesn’t start until Courtney Vandersloot returns.)

This team simply needs to take better care of the ball, and they need everybody else around Vandersloot / Allie Quigley / Stefanie Dolson to make their open three-pointers.

3. The first two off the bench for the Sun by season’s end will be Chiney Ogwumike and…Lexie Brown

There certainly has not been a lack of transparency out of Connecticut in regard to their desire to defend better on the wing. Longterm, defending both guard spots is a big part of Brown’s appeal as a prospect. Her three-point shooting could help right away. Brown thriving in that role and entering games early on would open the door for some interesting second unit combinations.

The Sun could turn to an Alyssa Thomas / Morgan Tuck / Ogwumike combination up front. They could also use one of Jasmine Thomas / Courtney Williams more to create for their second units.

4. Kaela Davis will be the Wings’ third-leading scorer

There are team dynamics to consider in Dallas, but Davis just has a different skill set that deserves more run than the 15.5 minutes per game she saw last season. She’s knows how to get off a quality look off in a crowd, and she’s got some shake to her game when asked to create her own shot off the bounce.

5. Kelsey Mitchell and Victoria Vivians will combine to make 120 three-pointers

6. Kayla McBride will shoot a career-high 47 percent from the field

LOS ANGELES, CA – JUNE 15: Kayla McBride #21 of the San Antonio Stars handles the ball against Chelsea Gray #12 and Essence Carson #17 of the Los Angeles Sparks during a WNBA basketball game at Staples Center on June 15, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Leon Bennett/Getty Images) /

This would be a big leap (nearly seven points) for a wing scorer. The Aces have a chance to balance out their offense now with A’ja Wilson there to turn to inside.

7. Riquna Williams scores 20+ points at least 8 times

8. Seimone Augustus sets career-high in assists, again

9. Tina Charles will post 50/40/80 shooting splits and set a career-high in assists

10. Brittney Griner will lead the league in 30-point games

SEATTLE, WA – MAY 20: Brittney Griner #42 of the Phoenix Mercury looks on during the game against the Seattle Storm on MAY 20, 2018 at KeyArena in Seattle, Washington. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Joshua Huston/NBAE via Getty Images) /

11. Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd will become the first set of teammates since 2009 to each average 19+ points per game

12. Elena Delle Donne will lead the Mystics to 23+ wins and capture her second MVP award

13. Opponents will not have an answer to a Brittney Griner / DeWanna Bonner / Diana Taurasi lineup that also features two of Leilani Mitchell, Briann January and Yvonne Turner

Lineup data is one of many things not yet available on the WNBA side, though I hope to start shining a light on the value that kind of data can bring to a discussion. I’ll write about this group and several others that I’m looking forward to tracking throughout the season in tomorrow’s column.

14. Kayla Thornton will be the Wings’ fourth-best player

Thornton is everywhere. She’s already showing more willingness to grab and go off an opponent’s miss. She just might be a starting role in the right situation and a league-average three-point shot away from making an All-Star team.

Thornton has games where she’ll foul a lot, but she can absolutely guard two-through-four right now, which makes her a big part of what the Wings will need to do to build a championship caliber defense around Liz Cambage.

15. The Sky and Dream will each send three players to the All-Star game, but only one of those two teams will make the playoffs

16. Jordin Canada will draw multiple All-Defense votes

SEATTLE, WA – MAY 20: Jordin Canada #21 of the Seattle Storm handles the ball against the Phoenix Mercury on MAY 20, 2018 at KeyArena in Seattle, Washington. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Joshua Huston/NBAE via Getty Images) /

17. The Aces will finish within three games of a playoff spot

18. The Mercury will finish with a top-two seed

19. Six of the 10 All-Defense spots will be taken by members of the Sparks and Lynx

20. The Sun will post a top-three offensive rebound rate

21. The Wings will advance to the semifinals and push to a Game 5

22. The Sparks will win 30 games and defeat the Minnesota Lynx in Game 5 at Staples Center to capture their fourth WNBA championship

Links I like

Here’s Arielle Chambers with A’ja Wilson and Jonquel Jones prior to Sunday’s opener.

Here’s Dane Mizutani on the reigning MVP and the trade she feared would never happen.

Here’s Mystics HC/GM Mike Thibault on the Off the Bench podcast.

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