NCAA Tournament: What to watch for in the Sweet 16

Every No. 1 and No. 2 seed is still alive heading into the Sweet 16. The top-seeded teams will have earned it should they punch their tickets to the Final Four in Columbus. Oregon State, NC State, Stanford and UCLA stand in the way of those top seeds in Friday’s action. Buffalo, Duke, Texas A&M and Central Michigan will be looking to pull off upsets on Saturday.

Let’s take a quick look at each matchup (stats obtained via HerHoopStats):

(6) Oregon State vs. (2) Baylor, Friday, 7 PM ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN/ESPN app

This one is a doozy featuring three premier post players. Marie Gulich of Oregon State will have her hands full with Baylor’s 6’7 Kalani Brown. Lauren Cox, Baylor’s starter at the four, is bigger and stronger than a lot of starting fives. She’s got great high-low chemistry with Brown, can spray passes out to open shooters and is a terror on the offensive glass.

Enter OSU freshman Taya Corosdale. At 6’2, she’ll be hard-pressed to outmuscle Brown or Cox. The Beavers need her to get by, mainly on the defensive glass. Corosdale has been a major X-factor for the Beavers this season as a stretch four. Sometimes she comes out of the gate hitting shots. There are also games in which she turns open looks down and spends more time on the bench. She’s shooting 34% on threes this season and take about half her shots from beyond the arc.

(4) NC State vs. (1) Mississippi State, Friday, 7 PM ET, ESPN/WatchESPN/ESPN app

Pay attention to one very critical clash of strengths in this one: The Wolfpack have the 18th highest free throw rate in the country. Mississippi State has excelled in defending without fouling. The Bulldogs rank in the top-25 in foul rate and total fouls per game.

Mississippi State becomes a different team on both ends when 6’7 center Teaira McCowan sits in foul trouble. Her presence at the rim is invaluable, and they lose their edge on the offensive glass without her.

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(4) Stanford vs. (1) Louisville, Friday, 9 PM ET, ESPN/WatchESPN/ESPN app

Stanford’s Alanna Smith is coming off a 28 point performance against FGCU. She’s one of the top shot blockers in the country, has nice footwork inside and can step out on occasion and knock down threes. Louisville’s got Myisha Hines-Allen, the type of athlete that really pops off the screen every time you watch her play. Will Smith’s dominance continue, or will Louisville’s front line bother her enough inside to force a few extra misses?

Also: Keep an eye out to see what Stanford tries to limit or take away when Louisville is on offense. Asia Durr is one of the best scorers in the nation. She’s lethal from beyond the arc, shooting 42% on nearly 10 attempts per game. Expect to see Stanford in a zone at some point in this one.

(3) UCLA vs. (2) Texas, Friday, 9 PM ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN/ESPN app

This is a matchup of strength versus strength in two key areas: lead guard play and rebounding. Texas is top-16 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. UCLA rebounds 41.2% of its misses, the 10th best mark in the country.

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Then look to the lead guard play. UCLA’s Jordin Canada has done a wonderful job of round out her game, now shooting nearly 40% from three on more attempts than ever. She assists on more than 40% of her team’s baskets when on the court and is averaging 3.2 steals per game.

Ariel Atkins is currently projected to be drafted in the first round in this year’s WNBA Draft. Point guard Brooke McCarty is a great running mate for her, averaging 13.7 points and 4.4 assists per game. Texas turnovers could really fuel big runs for the Bruins. Texas’ turnover rate (16.3%) puts them in the 84th percentile nationally.

(11) Buffalo vs. (2) South Carolina, Saturday, 11:30 AM ET, ESPN/WatchESPN/ESPN app

Buffalo has the ninth highest steal rate in the country (15%) and plays at the 11th quickest pace. Do the Bulls have an answer for A’ja Wilson inside? Individually, no.

But we’ve seen them change up their defenses in the first two rounds. Their guards pressure up on ball handlers. Then add great anticipation away from the ball to that mix. That combination allows the Bulls to generate a lot of steals and get out in transition. The same approach could also make it really tough for the Gamecocks to enter it inside to Wilson as much as they’d like.

Buffalo leading scorer Cierra Dillard will pull from anywhere on anybody. That could make for some fun back and forth stretches if she and Wilson get going at the same time.

(5) Duke vs. (1) UConn, Saturday, 1:30 PM ET, ESPN/WatchESPN/ESPN app

Duke’s steal rate (15.2%, or 10.3 steals per game) is the 12th best mark in the country. UConn’s top six players are all good passers, smart cutters and never stop moving. UConn doesn’t get enough credit for their passing and player movement. Individual brilliance is awesome in crunch time. This Huskies’ offense wears teams out, keeps everybody involved, and generates a ton of wide open shots at the rim. We all would benefit from appreciating it more.

Duke also plays at a pretty deliberate pace, averaging 67.2 possessions per 40 minutes — 293rd of 349 Division I programs. We saw Quinnipiac take the air out of the ball on nearly every possession in the second round. They succeeded in limiting UConn’s transition opportunities. But at some point, you need to hit shots. Lexie Brown will need to deliver a monster performance for the Blue Devils.

Expect to see UConn’s Kia Nurse on Brown. Nurse is a stout on-ball defender with excellent instincts. Her best work often comes away from the ball, denying her matchup from catching it in favorable positions to score. An example of that ball denial against Louisville’s Asia Durr from the regular season:

(4) Texas A&M vs. (1) Notre Dame, 4 PM ET, ESPN/WachESPN/ESPN app

Notre Dame is stacked with wonderful offensive players. It’s amazing that they’ve made it this far after losing three players to knee injuries. Just their luck — starting forward Kathryn Westbeld rolled her ankle in the team’s opener. She didn’t play in the first half against Villanova on Sunday. With the game tied at the half, Westbeld checked into the game. The Irish outscored Nova 28-8 in that third quarter and cruised from there.

Will Westbeld be close enough to 100% to take on a normal minutes load? Notre Dame may need her all the way back. Not only are they up against freshman sensation Chennedy Carter, one of the best scorers in the country. Anriel Howard and Khaalia Hillsman average nearly eight offensive rebounds per game by themselves for the Aggies.

Carter’s late clock and crunch time brilliance can be deflating. Give her and her teammates extra opportunities, and you just might have the perfect mix for an upset.

(11) Central Michigan vs. (2) Oregon, 6 PM ET, ESPN/WatchESPN/ESPN app

Central Michigan stunned Ohio State with its relentless pace and offensive firepower last weekend. They made the No. 3 seed look tired before we even got to halftime. You’d struggle to name more than a handful of teams that can realistically keep up with the Ducks in a shootout. The Chippewas have scored 114.2 points per 100 possessions this season — good for seventh in the country.

Central Michigan got rolling in the second quarter against Ohio State’s man-to-man defense. I’d expect Oregon to lean more on its 2-3 zone. The Chippewas have the shooters to shoot right over it. Both Presley Hudson (39%) and Cassie Breen (44%) are high-volume gunners. Breen doesn’t shy away from opportunities to drill one over good closeouts. Defenders need to get all the way into her jersey to run her off the line.

Hudson, meanwhile, took some threes off the bounce against Ohio State that would make Steph Curry blush. Expect these two teams to go back and forth plenty. The only question: Will the Chippewas have enough left in the tank in the second half? Or will Sabrina Ionescu and the Ducks go on a big run to pull away in the third quarter as they did against Minnesota?

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Note: HerHoopStats has published free game notes for each Sweet 16 matchup. You can download the notes as a PDF directly from their homepage to get a taste of what’s available to subscribers.