Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 5 DePaul
By Ben Dull
DePaul, a No. 5 seed, got by No. 12 seed Oklahoma in a high-scoring first round game on Friday. Texas A&M’s first round opponent came to play as well. No. 13 Drake outscored the Aggies in the second half by two but were unable to overcome a 15 point halftime deficit.
Texas A&M freshman guard Chennedy Carter is one of the most explosive scorers in the country. In the fifth game of her career, she scored 30 points on 18 shots in a win over Texas Tech. In December, she led the Aggies to a one point win at USC with 46 points. Carter scored 36 at South Carolina on New Years Eve and averaged 29 points in her team’s two matchups with Mississippi State.
DePaul found itself in serious foul trouble against Oklahoma. Will we see them sending two defenders at Carter at times to force her to give it up early? It should be noted that Carter needed 37 shots to get her 36 points at South Carolina and needed 28 shots to score 31 January 14 against Georgia. Force great players to take contested shots and you’ll have a chance.
This presents a questions coaches face constantly: Do you stick to what your team is most comfortable with on defense or consider trying something different to take the ball out of the hands of the opponent’s star player?
Carter was locked in Friday against Drake, finishing with 26 points, 11 assists and just two turnovers:
The Aggies will have their hands full in trying to slow down DePaul. Ashton Millender is a 42% three-point shooter and gets up a lot of them (seven attempts per game). Leading scorer Mart’e Grays had 16 points on seven shots Friday, but fouled out in just 16 minutes. Kelly Campbell leads the team in assists. She played all 40 minutes Friday, finishing with 17 points, six rebounds and five assists.
With the help of HerHoopStats, here’s a look at the Four Factors (defined in their glossary) for each team:
DePaul can get up and down the floor and put up points in a hurry. They rank in the top-25 nationally in both possessions per 40 minutes (75.7) and points scored per 100 possessions (108.7). They have the third highest three-point rate in the country (48.6%) and shoot a high percentage from deep (36.3%).
The question of whether it is worth it to regularly send 2+ players to the offensive glass will be on display in this one. Texas A&M has the 14th highest offensive rebounding rate in the country. The Blue Demons pull down 72.1% of opponent misses and have multiple ball handlers that can lead the break. When in the halfcourt, you can count on DePaul to work almost exclusively for layups and threes. Their shot chart from Friday:
These numbers provide valuable context and insight, but are not always predictive. Texas A&M has gotten to the foul line at a much higher rate than DePaul. We saw the opposite in round one. A&M took just 11 free throws against Drake while DePaul took 32 against Oklahoma. The Sooners did play the foul game late as they tried to catch up — 10 of those attempts came in the final minute. Remove those 10 entirely and DePaul still attempted twice as many free throws.
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