Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Oregon State
By Ben Dull
Tennessee led No. 14 seed Liberty by eight points at the break on Friday. Then the floodgates opened. The No. 3 seeded Volunteers went on to score 64 in the second half, pushing the final margin to 40. They’ll take on No. 6 seed Oregon State, who cruised to a 82-58 victory over Western Kentucky in the first round.
This matchup features two premier senior post players in Marie Gulich of Oregon State and Mercedes Russell of Tennessee. Russell actually is from Oregon, as is senior Jamie Nared, Tennessee’s leading scorer at 16.9 points per game. Expect 6’2 junior Katie McWilliams to draw the primary assignment on Nared.
Three Tennessee starters only had to play 20-22 minutes on Friday (including Russell and Nared), whereas three Oregon State starters logged 31 minutes apiece. This matchup may hinge on pace and fatigue. Tennessee averages nearly 10 more possessions per 40 minutes this season than the Beavers. The Volunteers play at the 27th fastest pace in the country; the Beavers are in the complete opposite end of the spectrum, falling in the eighth percentile.
The Beavers certainly can get out and run given the opportunity. Don’t confuse Gulich for a plodder. She can hurt teams that lag in getting all the way back. Look no further than Friday’s opening round game:
Seven players scored in double figures Friday for Tennessee. Russell and Nared each had 10, and freshman Rennina Davis had a team-high 18. 5’11 junior Meme Jackson knocked down three triples — she made 36.4% of her attempts in the regular season and leads the team in three-pointers made and attempted. Junior forward Cheridene Greene added 15 points and 12 rebounds off the bench. She played sparingly in conference play, but head coach Holly Warlick will likely need some solid minutes from one of her backup bigs to keep Gulich under wraps (as she would in a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor).
With the help of HerHoopStats, here’s a look at the Four Factors (defined in their glossary) for each team:
No team in the country shoots it better from deep than the Beavers (40.7%). Kat Tudor is the biggest threat from outside for Oregon State. She’s shooting 42.3% on threes this season and takes 72% of her shots from beyond the arc. Here’s a look at Tudor’s five three-pointers from round one:
Tennessee will need to limit the open catch and shoot threes for Tudor, McWilliams (44.2%) and Aleah Goodman (49.0%) in particular. If Tennessee manages to do so, they’ll be able to force Oregon State’s guards to do more damage off the bounce. OSU’s free throw rate is one of the lowest in the country. Point guard Mikayla Pivec played well Friday, but she tops out as their third option on most nights.
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Meanwhile, the Beavers’ ability to defend without fouling will be put to the test in this one. Only 17 other teams in the country get to the line more often than the Vols, who took 36 free throws Friday against Liberty. Look for Tennessee to go right at Gulich, get her into foul trouble, and force her backup Joanna Grymek to play more than her average of 9.5 minutes per game on Tennessee’s home floor to earn a spot in the Sweet 16.
Stats obtained via HerHoopStats.