Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 2 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Virginia
By Ben Dull
The defending national champion South Carolina Gamecocks got a surprising first round test from No. 15 seed North Carolina A&T. South Carolina’s 14 point fourth quarter lead was cut in half after a three-pointer by Kala Green. All-American forward A’ja Wilson responded six seconds later with a layup, then blocked Jade Scaife’s jumper on the next possession. Wilson pushed the lead back up to 11 with a three-point play inside the final minute, setting up a second round meeting with Virginia.
UVA took a five point lead into the fourth against Cal, who was without leading scorer Kristine Anigwe. Cal managed to tie the game at 57 with 1:53 remaining. Dominique Toussaint put UVA back in front with a left wing triple. Cal freshman Kianna Smith came right back with a bucket in the paint, then Lauren Moses found Felicia Aiyeotan inside for a layup. Asha Thomas got a good look at a three to tie it inside the final 30 seconds. Thomas’ shot missed off the back iron. Jocelyn Willoughby iced the game for Virginia at the charity stripe, going 6-6 in the closing seconds. Here’s a look at those four crucial possessions:
Wilson finished with 19 points, 16 rebounds, four steals and five blocks for the Gamecocks. Freshman guard Bianca Jackson came up big, especially in the first half, scoring 16 points (3-5 3PT):
Green (21 points, 7-13 FG, 5-8 3PT) fueled North Carolina A&T’s late run with a some big time shots on South Carolina’s home floor:
With the help of HerHoopStats, here’s a look at the Four Factors (defined in their glossary) for each team:
Not only are the Gamecocks defending national champions, they’ve been in elite company in multiple categories for 4+ years. They’ve ranked in 91st percentile or better in each of the past five seasons in both eFG% and free throw rate. Those trips to the line have been especially valuable this season — South Carolina’s 22.3% 3PT rate has been on the decline for two years now.
Volume isn’t everything when it comes to threes. We’ve highlighted several top-four seeds in our round of 32 previews that are efficient offensively without getting up 30+ threes per game. Bianca Jackson’s shooting in round one may pay off big down the line for South Carolina, though — teams will really lock in on A’ja Wilson and send multiple defenders at her to get the ball out of her hands.
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Virginia does not stack up well with a team of South Carolina’s ilk in the Four Factors. One positive note from their first round win over Cal: They took care of the basketball, turning it over just six times in that game. Their turnover rate of 20% this season puts them in the lower third nationally. UVA will need to limit the Gamecocks to one shot on each trip to give themselves a fighter’s chance.
Stats obtained via HerHoopStats.