The Kansas City region offers plenty of thrills, some potential surprises, and a clear championship contender atop the seed list in Mississippi State.
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Despite losing to South Carolina in the SEC Tournament title game, few doubt that Vic Schaefer’s Bulldogs can make a return trip to the Final Four. But this is no easy path, with some elite point guards in their way.
Still, consider the alternatives in this extremely strong group of elite teams. The Bulldogs drew Texas as a 2 and UCLA as a 3. Texas is an excellent team, but the other two seeds were Baylor, who beat Texas three times, Oregon, who Mississippi State defeated earlier this year but just beat UCLA to win the PAC-12, and South Carolina, the defending champs who just handed Mississippi State their only loss of the season.
So how will it all shake out? Let’s take a look.
Can’t Miss Players
Versatile Mississippi State forward Victoria Vivians, who plays the four in Schaefer’s lineup, is currently projected to go seventh overall on our WNBA Draft Big Board, two slots after fantastic two-way point guard Jordin Canada of UCLA. Fellow Bulldogs Morgan William and Teaira McCowan are each sensational in dramatically different ways, height-wise. My favorite part of Brooke McCarty’s game is her unpredictability—truly, you never know how the Texas point guard will try and score next. Megan Gustafson at Iowa is a machine offensively, with elite post moves and ability to finish with either hand. And Tiana Mangakahia, Syracuse playmaker, led the nation in assist percentage, by far, registering an unholy 60.7 percent, per HerHoopStats.
Best first round matchup
At the risk of going cliche, I’m choosing the 8-9 matchup, between up-tempo Oklahoma State and the always-dangerous scoring guard Loryn Goodwin, and that Syracuse team with Mangakahia, running coach Quentin Hillsman’s constant pressure defense. Expect plenty of action and a true toss-up.
Biggest potential upset
12 seed Princeton is a legit threat against five seed Maryland, but I’m going to take the team from Maryland’s pod last year, thirteen seed Elon, as a real threat to upset four seed N.C. State. The Wolfpack win by slowing it down (221st in the country in pace) and defending (32nd in the country in defensive points per possession). It just so happens Elon can play faster, but defense is what got them to the tournament again under Charlotte Smith, with the sixth-best defensive points per possession mark in the country.
What Elite Eight looks like
As excellent as the Texas roster is, as skilled as McCarty can be and as wily as Karen Aston is on the sidelines, this just feels like a matchup UCLA and Cori Close pull out, with shades of a Sweet 16 matchup these two waged back in 2016. (No Imani McGee-Stafford this time for Texas, though.) But UCLA doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to counter Mississippi State, nor any obvious answer for who will guard McCowan, especially if Monique Billings draws primary Vivians assignment all game. And you really want to bet against Morgan William in a big spot? Really? REALLY?
The pick
How ‘bout them Dawgs? #HailState pic.twitter.com/shw1yNeHS0
— Mississippi State Women's Basketball (@HailStateWBK) January 21, 2018