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Bracketology Update: Louisville jumps Mississippi State and Ohio State nabs a 2 seed

By Russell Steinberg

GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 03: Louisville Cardinals guard Dana Evans (1) dribbles during the ACC women's tournament game between the NC State Wolfpack and the Louisville Cardinals on March 3, 2018, at Greensboro Coliseum Complex in Greensboro, NC. (Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 03: Louisville Cardinals guard Dana Evans (1) dribbles during the ACC women's tournament game between the NC State Wolfpack and the Louisville Cardinals on March 3, 2018, at Greensboro Coliseum Complex in Greensboro, NC. (Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Let me start this update by saying this: for the most part, the changes to today’s bracket, compared to yesterday’s, are meaningless.

I know that’s not a good way to hook you, the reader, but you should know that before reading that Louisville has jumped Mississippi State as the second overall seed and Ohio State knocked Texas from the 2 line.

First, the Cardinal-Bulldog swap: Louisville beat Notre Dame in the ACC title game and Mississippi State lost to South Carolina for the SEC championship. With those results, the Cardinals now own four wins over RPI top 10 teams, compared to just two for the Bulldogs. Both have seven wins against the RPI top 25. Both went 16-1 on road/neutral courts. It’s incredibly close, but Louisville gets the edge with two wins over Notre Dame.

As for Ohio State and Texas, this was a swap of literally one spot on the true seed list (so there’s less of a difference between those two teams than, say, the fourth and first 1 seeds). Ohio State gets the nod by virtue of more top 50 wins, no losses outside of the top 50, and an overall tougher strength of schedule. But again, both would have a clear path to facing each other in the Sweet 16 anyway. All this determines is which team would wear the white jerseys. Oh, and if Texas beats Baylor tonight, they’ll probably swap right back.

Here’s your full bracket breakdown:

Bubble games to watch today:
(all times Eastern)

Western Illinois vs. South Dakota State, Summit semifinals, 3:30 p.m.
Creighton vs. Marquette, Big East semifinals, 4 p.m.
UCF vs. USF, American semifinals, 4:30 p.m.

Potential bid-stealing games to watch:

Youngstown State vs. Green Bay, Horizon semifinals, 1 p.m.

Conference Breakdown:

ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 6
Big 12: 4
Big East: 3
MAC: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2

Procedural bumps:

Syracuse 8 to 7
California 7 to 8

Last Four In:

West Virginia
Minnesota
Ball State
Dayton

First Four Out:

Virginia
South Dakota State
Creighton
USC

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