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Bracketology Update: Losses matter!

By Russell Steinberg

GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 02: Virginia Cavaliers forward Lisa Jablonowski (14) looks to pass during the ACC women's tournament game between the Virginia Cavaliers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on March 2, 2018, at Greensboro Coliseum Complex in Greensboro, NC. (Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 02: Virginia Cavaliers forward Lisa Jablonowski (14) looks to pass during the ACC women's tournament game between the Virginia Cavaliers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on March 2, 2018, at Greensboro Coliseum Complex in Greensboro, NC. (Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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While Thursday was a big day for the bubble teams, Friday was crucial for seeding purposes. Ohio State’s win over Rutgers, for example, pushed the Scarlet Knights down a bit (though still comfortably in the field, fight me on that), and NC State’s win over Duke vaulted the Wolfpack onto the 5 line.

Then there’s Virginia. The Cavaliers lost to Notre Dame, a clear 1 seed, and on its face, that should not hurt them much, if at all. And really, it doesn’t. But it brings up an interesting point that is easy to overlook:Losses have to matter. Virginia is now 2-12 against RPI top 50 teams, and while none of those individual losses mean a ton, all of them together have to. That’s why the Cavaliers are the last team in right now and can be bumped out by a bid-stealer.

Anyway, the bracket is above. You’ll notice there are some matchups in there that the committee will want to avoid, namely potential conference matchups as early as the Sweet 16. The only way to avoid that with this bracket would be to move too many teams off of their natural seed line and I did not think it would be worth it. It’ll all probably be changed by tomorrow, anyway.

Here’s the full breakdown:

Bubble games to watch today:
(all times Eastern)

TCU vs. Oklahoma, Big 12 Quarterfinals, RIGHT NOW
Minnesota vs. Ohio State, Big Ten Semifinals, 6 p.m.
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State, Big 12 Quarterfinals, 9:30 p.m.

Potential bid-stealing games:

George Washington vs. Dayton, A-10 Quarterfinals, RIGHT NOW
Northern Kentucky vs. Green Bay, Horizon League Quarterfinals, 2:30 p.m.
UT Martin vs. Belmont, OVC Championship, 3 p.m.

Conference Breakdown:

ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 6
Big 12: 4
Big East: 3
MAC: 3
American: 2

Procedural bumps:

Miami  8 to 7
Marquette 7 to 8
Syracuse 8 to 7
Villanova 7 to 8

Last Four In:

West Virginia
Minnesota
Ball State
Virginia

First Four Out:

South Dakota State
Creighton
TCU
Oklahoma

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