SEC WBB conference tournament preview
#8 Alabama v #9 Kentucky
Safe to say Alabama feels disappointed that they repeated last season’s SEC performance of 7-9 with every meaningful player returning from that team. While they moved their winning streak against Tennessee to four in a row, losses to Arkansas and Auburn proved costly. They did take both Georgia and LSU to overtime in the last two games of the year, so perhaps they are ready to make a run. For Kentucky, the most simple way to sum up their season is to say that they beat the teams they should have and lost to the teams they should have. They lost a ton from last season and this season always seemed to be a bit of a rebuild, which is what it proved to be. The winner of this game will face #1 Mississippi State in the next round.
Stats to know- Alabama
The good- Unafraid of contact, their free throw rate of 38.4% is 11th best in the nation.
The bad- 11.8 assists a game isn’t a lot. In fact, it ranks 270th overall, an indication that the team relies too much on isolated scoring.
Stats to know- Kentucky
The good- Their 3-pt percentage of 36.3 (40th) and turnovers per game 13.3 (45th) both rank among the top 87 percentile in the country
The bad- Opponents are shooting 34.8% from three against the Wildcats, the 29th highest mark in the country. They are also allowing an opponents true shooting percentage of 50.5% putting the Wildcats defense in the lower 21 percentile in that regard.
The spread
Kentucky is 1.5 against Alabama with a 52% win probability.
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KNOXVILLE, TN – FEBRUARY 01: Texas A&M Aggies head coach Gary Blair talks with guard Chennedy Carter (3) during a game between the Texas A&M Aggies and Tennessee Lady Volunteers on February 1, 2018, at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
#5 Texas A&M v. #12 Vanderbilt/#13 Arkansas
Getting the winner of the 12/13 matchup is the Aggies of Texas A&M. Going 11-5 in conference, A&M has finished in the Top 6 of the SEC every season since they joined the conference back in 2012. The team has no bad losses in conference and deploy scoring dynamo and SEC Freshman of the Year Chennedy Carter, a player who can almost single handedly outscore any other team. The winner of this game will face #4 LSU in the next round.
Stats to know- Texas A&M
The good- Thanks in large part to the aforementioned Carter, A&M is scoring 109.6 points per 100 possessions, 18th most in the country. They also own a stellar offensive rebounding rate of 41.4%, 12th in the country.
The bad- While they are putting up plenty of points, they are letting their opposition score them as well. Their opponents effective field goal percentage and 3-pt percentage both rank in the mid-200’s and their own assisted shot rate of 49.1% (309) shows how reliant they are on Carter’s isolation ability.
The spread
Texas A&M would be -15.5 against both Vanderbilt and Arkansas with a 92% win probability.
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#7 Tennessee v #10 Auburn
Perhaps the most surprising seeding of all, the Lady Vols enter the SEC tournament as the 7-seed for the second time in three seasons after losing tiebreakers to LSU, Texas A&M and Missouri. That said, their only bad loss is to Alabama, a team who has been an odd road bump for the Lady Vols two years in a row now. For Auburn, their pressing defensive continues to cause issues at times, but their offense continually lets them down. The winner of this game will face #2 South Carolina in the next round.
Stats to know- Tennesee
The good- They are 6th nationwide in DRPG (30.1), 23rd in margin per game (+14.3) and their opponents rebounding rate of just 44.4% is 19th best.
The bad- A three point rate of just 25.2% ranks 301st and they turn the ball over 16.6 times a game, second most in the SEC.
Stats to know- Auburn
The good- Second in the country with 13.3 steals per game, the Tigers can force turnovers by the bunch.
The bad- The Tigers shoot just 26.6% from three, worst in the SEC and better than just 24 other teams in the country out of 349 teams. They also rank 267th or worst in true shooting and effective field goal percentage. Lastly, they are the worst defensive rebounding team in the country at just 19.3 per game.
The spread
Tennessee is -14.5 v Auburn with a 89% win probability.
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#6 Missouri v #11 Florida/#14 Ole Miss
While the Tigers would have liked to finish higher seeding wise in the SEC, the team looks poised to host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history so not all is lost in Columbia. Mizzou proved to be a tough test for everyone they played and if a couple of things went their way late in a few games, they could easily be in second place. All 5 conference losses came to teams above them in the standings and they have a tough road ahead of them in the tournament. The winner of this game will play #3 Georgia in the quarterfinals.
Stats to know- Missouri
The good- A true shooting percentage of 57.5% is 8th best in the country, total rebounding rate of 56.4% is 12th and opponents rebounding per game of 30.3 is 5th. Those are good numbers.
The bad- The Tigers only force 10.5 turnovers a game, the 4th fewest in the country. They also rank as one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country with just 10 a game (312th).
The spread
Missouri would be -12.5 against Florida with a 86% win probability.
Missouri would be -15.5 against Ole Miss with a 92% win probability.