WNBA Free Agency 2018: The Restricted Free Agent class

January 15 marked the official start of WNBA free agency. The WNBA released an official list of core players, reserved players, unrestricted free agents and restricted free agents.

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Our own Howard Megdal released his Restricted Free Agent (RFA) rankings about a month ago. Those players are now free to do one of three things:

negotiate a deal with their prior team and enter into that contract as early as February 1
negotiate terms for an offer sheet with any other WNBA team, which the prior team would have four days to match once given notice of a signed offer sheet
accept a one year restricted qualifying offer (RQO) with their prior team

February 1 is an important date for restricted free agents and their former teams. Prior teams must extend a restricted qualifying offer to any restricted free agent by February 1. If not, that player immediately becomes an unrestricted free agent, free to sign with any team of their choosing.

Restricted free agency can get interesting if a new team swoops in and convinces a restricted free agent to sign an offer sheet with them. Any offer sheet from a new team must be at least two years in length.

As mentioned, a prior team has four days to match any signed offer sheet. Most prior teams likely have an idea by now of whether or not they wish to retain their restricted free agents. 2018’s class of 12 players includes eight players that were regulars in their team’s 2017 rotation. Four of those players were either 2017 All-Stars (Alyssa Thomas, Stefanie Dolson) or playing at that level for a significant portion of the season (Kayla McBride, Odyssey Sims).

A new team coming in with an offer sheet could make things more difficult for that prior team because of the four day clock that starts once an offer sheet is signed by the player. Any diligent team outside of Los Angeles or Minnesota is constantly looking for ways to take a big swing. As such, every team is constantly juggling many possible scenarios at once aiming to improve their team. Teams have to prioritize at some point, and that is what could allow a new team to strike big in restricted free agency.

Offer sheets could also further complicate things for prior teams if they are shorter or longer than they are willing to initially hand out. Phoenix, for example, would be wise to do all it can to get a meeting with Alyssa Thomas, knowing Candace Parker completely exposed them at the four spot in the Sparks’ sweep of the Mercury in the semifinals.

LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 03: Candace Parker

If the Mercury were to sign her to a two-year offer sheet (a reasonable proposition which would give her an opportunity to look to win now alongside Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner), the WNBA world would be shocked if the Sun didn’t match it. However, that would still be a worthwhile gamble for the Mercury to make, because at the very least, an All-Star of a fellow contender would hit the market sooner as an unrestricted free agent in 2019.

Let’s be clear: I see no reason Connecticut would even fathom moving on from Thomas. This simply serves as an example of how strong this group of restricted free agents is at the top and how one offer sheet could have ripple effects beyond the two teams involved for years to come.

I just violated my own rule to almost apologize for presenting two sides of a possible basketball transaction. Thomas makes for a fantastic fit in Phoenix, should this have any legs whatsoever. Seeing her suit up in Phoenix would be fun — not to mention the fuel that would add to the fire between whoever runs the official Twitter accounts for those teams.

Thomas would be able to expose a lot of bigs running pick and rolls with Griner. The Mercury are also one of the few teams that wouldn’t be hobbled by handing off a majority of its ball handling duties to her. Thomas’ ability to slash into the lane would even be enough of a threat to open up more looks for Taurasi, who usually just has a defender glued to her when she’s off the ball, no matter where she’s standing.

But what about her shooting? That question immediately pokes a pretty significant hole in this ship’s sail, as it does for Connecticut’s long term outlook. In Phoenix, the Mercury were completely flummoxed by the Sparks wise decision to continually send two bodies to Griner. Without four credible shooters on the floor, the Sparks were going to expose somebody.

Should Phoenix find a way to address that, they immediately become title contenders in 2018. It’s no easy task, though. Thomas (an All-Star at their weakest position!) makes some basketball sense for them, but would hamstring Griner’s ability to school people on the block. The Sun will need to figure some things out as well with Chiney Ogwumike set to return from injury. And whatever Jonquel Jones is going to become, she’ll need the ball in her hands more to become that, which will impact Thomas’ role.

Onto some more fun RFA possibilities/scenarios:

UNCASVILLE, CONNECTICUT- AUGUST 18: Bria Hartley

Bria Hartley came on strong in the second half of 2017 for the New York Liberty. She would be an intriguing fit for just about every contender, considering the ability she flashed to fill either guard spot as a reliable two-way player. The Liberty cored Tina Charles as expected, but at the guard spots, they have tougher decisions to make.

Brittany Boyd (Achilles) will aim to come back strong in the 2018 season. Epiphanny Prince was a reliable scoring option and started in 25 of her 28 games games played last season. 2017 All-Star Sugar Rodgers is a big part of the backcourt rotation. Lindsay Allen (a reserved player in 2018), too, had some nice moments as their back up point guard.

WNBA Free Agency 2018: Turner, Wheeler, Whitcomb among Reserved Players

Highlighting the top names among the list of WNBA Reserved Players, including Yvonne Turner of the Phoenix Mercury and Erica Wheeler of the Indiana Fever.

In Hartley’s case, perhaps a contending team could catch her eye early in free agency with a strong offer sheet, and New York may think twice knowing they already have three guards under contract along with exclusive negotiating rights with Allen. Seattle would be a wonderful fit for Hartley, who could play alongside Sue Bird or Jewell Loyd.

The dots are easy to connect between Kayla McBride and Chicago, given her history of playing overseas with Courtney Vandersloot. Landing her would be massive for the Sky, who also will have the chance to take two bigs swings in the upcoming draft. Las Vegas, however, would have no reason not to match any offer, should McBride even sign one with another team.

The Sky and the Sparks also have little reason to think any other path would net them a player more impactful than Stefanie Dolson or Odyssey Sims, respectively.

Things could get interesting in the case of Minnesota’s Natasha Howard. Howard logged 17 minutes in the 2017 Finals for the champs, appearing in four of the five games. Another team may really value her defensive versatility and be eager to offer her a larger role. Expect all the aforementioned players to stay put if you’re placing odds. Howard in all likelihood is the best available RFA in such a position that a new team could offer her something that the Lynx cannot.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 4: Natasha Howard

(Rings, though.)

Theresa Plaisance possesses a very rare skill set at her position. Dallas, however, could elect to use its available resources elsewhere. Courtney Paris, Kayla Thornton, Glory Johnson and 2017 No. 3 overall pick Evelyn Akhator all are set to return in the frontcourt for the Wings. The rumblings of a Liz Cambage return to the WNBA also will certainly affect Dallas’ thinking in this case. Atlanta would be a nice fit for Plaisance with a team in dire need of some spot up shooting.

Also included in the class of 2018 restricted free agents: Tianna Hawkins (who really improved as a jump shooter and logged important minutes up front for Washington in 2017), Jordan Hooper (CHI), Amber Harris (CHI), Sydney Colson (LVS) and Kelsey Bone (PHX).