The Money Line: WNBA odds, predictions for Sunday, June 18

It finally happened! Maybe people suspected that it might happen (not me as my last article indicated) and it proved to be truth: the might Minnesota Lynx have fallen. Okay, they lost one game, but still! The Connecticut Sun look like the most dangerous team in the league right now as they have now reeled off four straight. Check out this article from Mike Peden for more on that game. We have four games today so let's not waste time and get right into them.rnrn Seasonrn Spread: 23-22rnOver/under: 22-23rnrn[nextslide teaser="A Mystical offense" slider="true" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_1824" align="alignnone" width="850"] WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 26: Tayler Hill[/caption]rnrn Dallas Wings (+8, -110)rn Washington Mystics (-8, -110)rn Total: 175.5 rnrnA fun thing I've noticed is how the over/under number for Mystics games has slowly grown each game as Vegas realizes how serious their offense really is. It has been a full week since the Mystics have been in action and last time out was a superb performance. Led by Elena Delle Donne (who else?) with 25 points, Washington hit 10 threes and out rebounded Indiana 43-23 in a 88-70 victory at home. Delle Donne, second in the league in scoring at 21.1 per game, is a guaranteed starter in the All-Star game and is someone who is in the MVP conversation if Sylvia Fowles ever comes back to Earth. Though their three-point percentage leaves some to be desired (34.1%, sixth in the league), the Mystics are making a league-high 7.4 threes a game, getting 26.5% of their points from the long ball, just the way the team was constructed to do.rnrnFor Dallas, there is so much promise but so little of it resulting in wins yet. After falling short against New York in overtime on Friday, Dallas has now lost three straight games and six of their last seven. Not to sound like a broken record player, but the Wings defense has to improve in order for the wins to come. Owners of the second worst defensive rating in the league, Dallas also allows the second highest true shooting percentage and third highest effective field goal percentage to opponents. Skylar Diggins-Smith and Glory Johnson have both shown flashes, albeit a bit inconsistently, and Allisha Gray is the runaway Rookie of the Year currently, so there are positives for this young team. The biggest question is when will it all click, if at all?rnrnDallas is dangerous on offense and the last time these two teams played it was close until late, but I like Washington at home here. Like I promised at the beginning of the season, its a Washington game, so I'm taking the over. rnrn[nextslide teaser="DT history time" slider="true" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_2038" align="alignnone" width="850"] CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 12: MVP Diana Taurasi[/caption]rnrn rnrn Phoenix Mercury (+8.5, -110)rn Los Angles Sparks (-8.5, -110)rn Total: 163 rnrnSafe to say this is the game that everyone around the league will have their collective eyes on tonight. Yes, these are two good teams playing and normal circumstances would have plenty of people watching, but tonight is a special circumstance. Barring an unforeseen ice-cold shooting night, Diana Taurasi will break Tina Thompson's record of 7,488 career points to become the all-time leading scorer in the WNBA's history. Just 14 points shy of the record, Taurasi has had herself quite the year. After marrying Penny Taylor the night before the season opener, the 13-year veteran has turned it up, scoring 19.9 points a game in just 29.5 minutes per game, her fewest since her injury shortened year in 2008. The Mercury own one of the best defensive ratings in the league, thanks in large part to the force that is Brittney Griner , and offensively they now have two serious scoring threats now that Griner is reaching her potential on that side of the ball (career high 24.1 points per game, 56.1% shooting).rnrnThough it was a littler closer than they wanted it to be, the Sparks took care of business against San Antonio, coming out on top 85-80 at home on Thursday. Candace Parker had 20 points while Chelsea Gray had 19, extending her personal streak of three straight games with at least 19 points. As a whole, the Sparks are still among the elite in all meaningful shooting statistics, but still rank second to last in rebounding percentage and dead last in rebounds per game. Part of the low rebounding numbers can be contributed to the fact that LA owns the best field goal percentage in the league while allowing the third highest percentage to opponents. Simply put, there aren't as many rebounds out there to snag as there are in most games, although the low rebounding percentage can't be excused with that.rnrnThe Sparks won the last matchup between these teams by two points, and they are 4-0 at home. While I think they win this team, I would like to think that Phoenix will keep this closer than eight, especially with the history that is likely to be made. Give me the Mercury and the over. rnrn[nextslide teaser="Can Sky rise?" slider="true" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_1856" align="alignnone" width="850"] WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 26: Tamera Young[/caption]rnrn Indiana Fever (-1.5, -110)rn Chicago Sky (+1.5, -110)rn Total: 161.5 rnrnThe smallest spread of the day involves two teams who are fighting to stay out of the cellar, though one could argue that at this point it might be best to stay there for drafting purposes. Not to turn this into a column on "tanking", but both Indiana and Chicago have shown themselves to be in rebuilding mode and a high draft pick is probably the thing that each of these franchises needs at this time. It also helps that the 2018 draft looks like one of the deepest we have seen in years. Both of these teams have issues that won't likely be fixed this year and they are on both sides of the ball. Indiana continues to be last in defensive rating, while Chicago is second to last in offensive rating. The Fever also rank last in rebounding percentage, opponent's true shooting percentage and assists per game. The Sky rank in the bottom three in points per game, true shooting percentage and turnover percentage.rnrnThis is not a easy game to pick, but Indiana's road woes are well known and both teams have struggled offensively. I'll take the Sky since they are at home and I will take the under. rnrn[nextslide teaser="Storm over Stars?" slider="true" /]rnrn rnrn[caption id="attachment_1882" align="alignnone" width="850"] SEATTLE, WA - MAY 28: Sami Whitcomb[/caption]rnrn San Antonio Stars (+10, -110)rn Seattle Storm (-10, -110)rn Total: 162 rnrnI mentioned it briefly before but the Stars gave an admirable effort against the Sparks last time out. Moriah Jefferson came off the bench (something that I can't imagine she will be doing much longer) to score a game-high 24 points, while Isabelle Harrison poured in a career-high 22 in the loss. Just seven losses away from tying the worst start to a WNBA season in history, the Stars are desperate to get a win. Scoring a league worst 73.7 points per game, San Antonio faces struggles every night to get quality shots. Second to last in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, the Stars also have the second lowest assist-to-turnover ratio. One bright spot for this team is that in a league that is relying on the three ball more than ever, San Antonio allows the fewest percentage of points from deep in the entire league.rnrnSeattle, a team that started the season 4-0, has sputtered lately, dropping three straight games and four of the last five. The last loss came at the hands of the Atlanta Dream, a 91-86 final that saw Damiris Dantas for Atlanta completely dominate, scoring 22 points off of the bench. The game also revealed what Seattle's biggest achilles heel might be: their bench. Contributing just 10 points, the bench of the Storm was a collective -29 for the night, with the starters all playing at least 34 minutes. Quietly, Seattle has also struggled on defense as they are now ranked the third worse in terms of defensive rating while they also have turned the ball over at the third highest rate in the league, another stat that has seemingly gone unnoticed.rnrnThe Storm are a team I believed could make a push for the title before the season started. While I'm not ready to jump off that belief quite yet, there are clearly some things that need to get addressed. A visit from the Stars is a good place to start as I think Seattle wins. I wish the spread was a little smaller, but I'll still take the Storm and the over.

High Post Hoops

The Money Line: WNBA odds, predictions for Sunday, June 18

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