I could talk about how ridiculous it is that the Chicago Sky and San Antonio Stars went to overtime and just hit the over, or how I originally picked the Sparks but then changed my mind last second to the Mercury. Instead, I’ll take a moment to give major props to the Connecticut Sun for hanging 104 points on Atlanta, a team that hadn’t let anyone score even 80 for the past five games. The Sun’s entire starting lineup scored double digit points in a dominate performance, and the team was even without Morgan Tuck. Safe to say the Sun appear to be coming into their own. With three more games today, there should be plenty more action to breakdown.
Season
Spread: 19-18
Over/under: 17-20
Indiana Fever (+5.5,-110)
Washington Mystics (-5.5, -110)
Total: 161.5
Coming in at 4-5, Indiana has notched some impressive wins. Los Angles, Connecticut and Seattle have all fallen victim to the Fever, but all of those wins occurred in Indy. Even in losses, Indiana clearly is playing better at home, averaging 87.6 points per game in Indy while scoring just 69 per game on the road. In their three road games against top tier teams (Seattle twice and Phoenix) two of those games ended in blowouts. They still rank as the worst defensive team in terms of defensive rating, and their rebounding percentage is second to last in the league. Erica Wheeler played great last time out, and the platoon of Natalie Achonwa, Candice Dupree, Shenise Johnson, Tiffany Mitchell and Briann January continue to chip in.
Washington took their first major lump of the season, getting drubbed by Minnesota, 98-73. The Mystics were without Elena Delle Donne who was nursing a groin injury, and nobody besides Tayler Hill (20 points) and Ivory Latta (15) could get anything going on offense. Coming into the season, plenty of questions were asked about the interior defensive of the Mystics and whether or not they could slow the top post players in the league. While maybe unfair to judge since the Mystics were shorthanded, Sylvia Fowles certainly had no problems in route to 21 points on 10-of-15 shooting.
With Delle Donne likely returning today, and the Fever’s road woes, I like the Mystics and the over.
Seattle Storm (+3 -110)
New York Liberty (-3, -110)
Total: 160
Wouldn’t it figure? Breanna Stewart has her best scoring game of the season and Seattle loses the game. 23 points and 9 rebounds for Stewart went to waste against Indiana, but it was her second straight game of 20+ points, a welcome sign for Seattle fans. Jewell Loyd scored 25 as she continues to make a claim for MVP, and the team as a whole continues to climb the offensive rankings, now third in offensive rating. Their effective field goal and true shooting percentages are the best, but their turnover percentage is second worst, trailing just San Antonio. The Storm have also been the beneficiaries of a very favorable schedule so far, playing five consecutive home games and going 4-1 over that stretch, while they’ve gone just 1-2 on the road.
The Liberty, in true Bill Laimbeer fashion, have used their play to tell everyone to shut up about their depleted roster. Now 3-0 since Kia Vaughn and Epiphanny Prince left for EuroBasket qualifying, the Liberty have had a nice balance of offense and defense. Tina Charles has averaged 23.3 points over the last three games, including a 36 point explosion against Dallas, while Shavonte Zellous has scored 20 a game over that same stretch. This will be their fifth straight home game and a chance for redemption for an early season loss to the Storm.
While I would like to pick the Storm, and maybe I should go with my gut, I can’t ignore what New York has done lately, especially at home. I’m going to roll with the Liberty and the under.
Minnesota Lynx (-10, -110)
Dallas Wings (+10, -110)
Spread: 169.5
Minnesota is never going to lose again and they are going to become the Golden State Warriors of the WNBA. Okay, maybe that is a bit hyperbolic, but seriously, when are they going to lose? The matchup with Washington was much hyped as it featured the top two teams in the league, but as was mentioned before, the Mystics were without Delle Donne which put a damper on the whole thing as Minnesota cruised. Lindsay Whalen became the winningest player in league history, while Fowles continues to be the frontrunner for MVP. The absolute terrifying thing is that Maya Moore is having the worst season of her career, something nobody is talking about, and Minnesota is still cruising. They are really good and I don’t need numbers to prove that point.]
Now Dallas is a interesting squad. Their record doesn’t exactly speak to it, but they have battled some really good teams and fallen just short, and they finally got a result last time out against LA. Paced by Glory Johnson, Dallas was picked apart by Nneka Ogwumike and Candace Parker, but allowed just three made three-pointers while also out rebounding LA in a 96-90 victory. Dallas is young and still without Aerial Powers, but they do enough on offensive to keep the pressure on opposing teams. Defensively they still rank towards the bottom of the league, something that has to improve if they want consistent results.
Ten points is a big spread and anytime double digits are involved, I get worried. Not really sure what to do here, I’m going to roll with what I know, and what I know is that Minnesota is great and until they lose, they get my vote. Lynx and the over!