After a fine 2-1 start on both the spreads and over/under on day one, a nice fall back to Earth was in store on the second day of the WNBA opening weekend. Some I got flat wrong (see: Mercury, Phoenix) and some I was unlucky (the Mystics missed covering by half a point).
No matter how you add it up, 1-3 on both categories takes us sub-.500 for the first time this season. It will be a slow climb as their won’t be multiple games until Friday, but we will give it our best effort.
Season record
Spread: 3-4
Over/under: 3-4
Indiana Fever (+4.5. -110)
Phoenix Mercury (-4.5, -110)
Total: 158
As the old saying goes: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” I suppose I’m taking a risk here wanting to take the Mercury again, but they can’t possibly struggle that much again, can they? Getting out rebounded 41-17 by the Dallas Wings in a 68-58 loss was bad enough, but zero offensive rebounds as a team is astounding. That stat was only beaten in ineptitude by Brittney Griner somehow managing to haul in just two rebounds in 31 minutes of playing time. Diana Taurasi had herself a clunker of a game too, shooting 1-for-11 from the field, scoring just three points and failed to record an assist.
Meanwhile the Fever really impressed me. Playing without Tamika Catchings for the first time in 16 years, the Pokey Chatman-led squad put up a valiant effort before eventually bowing out to a more talented Seattle Storm, 87-82. Led by Shenise Johnson’s 24 points, the Fever also got 23 points from the newest member of the Arizona State women’s basketball staff, Briann January, and last year’s first round pick Tiffany Mitchell contributed 17 points off the bench. Now, its just one game, but the Fever had an effective field goal percentage of 50.7% and a offensive rebound percentage of 35.5, which would have been fourth and first in the league last season, respectively.
All that said, I refuse to be a prisoner of the moment. The Mercury simply cannot be that bad again, especially on the glass, and despite a good showing, the Fever are going to have to show me several times over that they can compete like this on a nightly basis. I will take the Mercury here even giving the 4.5 points. As for the total, I really don’t know what to think of these teams and how they will play defense. This feels like one of those situations that I’m going to be wrong no matter which way I pick, so I’ll just take the under and live with it.