A large part of the reason that sports are so enjoyable is the fact that they are so unpredictable. The language of coaching is littered with sayings and cliches that speak to this: “They might beat us nine times out of 10, but today is that one time!” or “Let’s go shock the world!”
Unfortunately, the word “unpredictable” is the last one you would use when attempting to predict the WNBA Rookie of the Year. The award has been given out every year, excluding the inaugural 1997 season, and its been pretty straightforward. Of the previous 19 winnings of the ROY, 11 of them were the first overall pick. This trend has only increased in recent times. Since 2007, only two players won the award that weren’t the overall first pick; Armintie Herrington (third pick to the Chicago Sky) and Elena Delle Donne (second pick to the Sky).
Now that we’ve concluded our history lesson, let’s get into this season. After much debate and smokescreens thrown out by several teams, the all-time leading scorer in NCAA women’s basketball history, Kelsey Plum, was picked first overall by the San Antonio Stars. Knowing what we do about the past, Plum should be the easy pick to win ROY, right? Well, lets take a look at the odds.